Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm
© 2016 American Meteorological Society. Ice storms are an infrequent but significant hazard in the U.S southern Great Plains. Common synoptic profiles for freezing precipitation reveal advection of low-level warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), above a shallow Arctic air mass ahead of a mid...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118484 |
id |
ftunivtsydney:oai:opus.lib.uts.edu.au:10453/118484 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivtsydney:oai:opus.lib.uts.edu.au:10453/118484 2023-05-15T15:12:54+02:00 Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm Mullens, ED Leslie, LM Lamb, PJ 2016-01-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118484 unknown Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0289.1 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016, 55 (1), pp. 119 - 143 1558-8424 http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118484 Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Journal Article 2016 ftunivtsydney 2022-03-13T14:01:13Z © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Ice storms are an infrequent but significant hazard in the U.S southern Great Plains. Common synoptic profiles for freezing precipitation reveal advection of low-level warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), above a shallow Arctic air mass ahead of a midlevel trough. Because the GOM is the proximal basin and major moisture source, this study investigates impacts of varying GOM sea surface temperature (SST) on the thermodynamic evolution of a winter storm that occurred during 28-30 January 2010, with particular emphasis on the modulation of freezing precipitation. A high-resolution, nested ARW sensitivity study with a 3.3-km inner domain is performed, using six representations of GOM SST, including control, climatological mean, uniform ±2°C from control, and physically constrained upper- and lower-bound basin-average anomalies from a 30-yr dataset. The simulations reveal discernable impacts of SST on the warm-layer inversion, precipitation intensity, and low-level dynamics. Whereas total precipitation for the storm increased monotonically with SST, the freezing-precipitation response was more varied and nonlinear, with the greatest accumulation decreases occurring for the coolest SST perturbation, particularly at moderate precipitation rates. Enhanced precipitation and warm-layer intensity promoted by warmer SST were offset for the highest perturbations by deepening of the weak 850-hPa low circulation and faster eastward progression associated with enhanced baroclinicity and diabatic generation of potential vorticity. Air-parcel trajectories terminating within the freezing-precipitation region were examined to identify airmass sources and modification. These results suggest that GOM SST can affect the severity of concurrent ice-storm events in the southern Great Plains, with warmer basin SST potentially exacerbating the risk of damaging ice accumulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic University of Technology Sydney: OPUS - Open Publications of UTS Scholars Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Technology Sydney: OPUS - Open Publications of UTS Scholars |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtsydney |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Mullens, ED Leslie, LM Lamb, PJ Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm |
topic_facet |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
© 2016 American Meteorological Society. Ice storms are an infrequent but significant hazard in the U.S southern Great Plains. Common synoptic profiles for freezing precipitation reveal advection of low-level warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), above a shallow Arctic air mass ahead of a midlevel trough. Because the GOM is the proximal basin and major moisture source, this study investigates impacts of varying GOM sea surface temperature (SST) on the thermodynamic evolution of a winter storm that occurred during 28-30 January 2010, with particular emphasis on the modulation of freezing precipitation. A high-resolution, nested ARW sensitivity study with a 3.3-km inner domain is performed, using six representations of GOM SST, including control, climatological mean, uniform ±2°C from control, and physically constrained upper- and lower-bound basin-average anomalies from a 30-yr dataset. The simulations reveal discernable impacts of SST on the warm-layer inversion, precipitation intensity, and low-level dynamics. Whereas total precipitation for the storm increased monotonically with SST, the freezing-precipitation response was more varied and nonlinear, with the greatest accumulation decreases occurring for the coolest SST perturbation, particularly at moderate precipitation rates. Enhanced precipitation and warm-layer intensity promoted by warmer SST were offset for the highest perturbations by deepening of the weak 850-hPa low circulation and faster eastward progression associated with enhanced baroclinicity and diabatic generation of potential vorticity. Air-parcel trajectories terminating within the freezing-precipitation region were examined to identify airmass sources and modification. These results suggest that GOM SST can affect the severity of concurrent ice-storm events in the southern Great Plains, with warmer basin SST potentially exacerbating the risk of damaging ice accumulations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mullens, ED Leslie, LM Lamb, PJ |
author_facet |
Mullens, ED Leslie, LM Lamb, PJ |
author_sort |
Mullens, ED |
title |
Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm |
title_short |
Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm |
title_full |
Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of gulf of Mexico SST anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: ARW sensitivity study of the 28-30 January 2010 winter storm |
title_sort |
impacts of gulf of mexico sst anomalies on southern plains freezing precipitation: arw sensitivity study of the 28-30 january 2010 winter storm |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118484 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0289.1 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016, 55 (1), pp. 119 - 143 1558-8424 http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118484 |
_version_ |
1766343527336247296 |