Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north
Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifi...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8901 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/8901 2023-05-15T15:37:59+02:00 Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E. Carina H. Viasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, Stuart Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V. van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-Larsen, Ingrid Agathe Ims, Rolf Anker Aspholm, Paul Eric 2015-09 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8901 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 eng eng Resilience Alliance Ecology & society 2015, 20(3) FRIDAID 1275106 doi:10.5751/ES-07607-200332 1708-3087 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8901 URN:NBN:no-uit_munin_8469 openAccess Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed 2015 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 2021-06-25T17:54:40Z Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues. Article in Journal/Newspaper barents region reindeer husbandry University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Ecology and Society 20 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 |
spellingShingle |
Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E. Carina H. Viasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, Stuart Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V. van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-Larsen, Ingrid Agathe Ims, Rolf Anker Aspholm, Paul Eric Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
topic_facet |
Barents Region biodiversity climate change ecosystem services forestry game species outdoor recreation reindeer husbandry social-ecological systems VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 |
description |
Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E. Carina H. Viasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, Stuart Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V. van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-Larsen, Ingrid Agathe Ims, Rolf Anker Aspholm, Paul Eric |
author_facet |
Jansson, Roland Nilsson, Christer Keskitalo, E. Carina H. Viasova, Tatiana Sutinen, Marja-Liisa Moen, Jon Chapin, Stuart Bråthen, Kari Anne Cabeza, Mar Callaghan, Terry V. van Oort, Bob Dannevig, Halvor Bay-Larsen, Ingrid Agathe Ims, Rolf Anker Aspholm, Paul Eric |
author_sort |
Jansson, Roland |
title |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_short |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_full |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north |
title_sort |
future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the european north |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8901 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 |
genre |
barents region reindeer husbandry |
genre_facet |
barents region reindeer husbandry |
op_relation |
Ecology & society 2015, 20(3) FRIDAID 1275106 doi:10.5751/ES-07607-200332 1708-3087 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8901 URN:NBN:no-uit_munin_8469 |
op_rights |
openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07607-200332 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1766368649571991552 |