Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations

Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011 to 2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean–...

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Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Zhang, Yong-Fei, Bushuk, Mitchell, Winton, Michael, Hurlin, Bill, Gregory, William, Landy, Jack Christopher, Jia, Liwei
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10037/32690
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672
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spelling ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/32690 2024-02-11T09:59:24+01:00 Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations Zhang, Yong-Fei Bushuk, Mitchell Winton, Michael Hurlin, Bill Gregory, William Landy, Jack Christopher Jia, Liwei 2023-12-15 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/32690 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 eng eng Wiley Geophysical Research Letters Zhang, Bushuk, Winton, Hurlin, Gregory, Landy, Jia. Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations. Geophysical Research Letters. 2023;50(24) FRIDAID 2218781 doi:10.1029/2023GL105672 0094-8276 1944-8007 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/32690 Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) openAccess Copyright 2023 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2023 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 2024-01-25T00:08:04Z Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011 to 2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean–sea ice model. The model's SIT anomaly field is brought into significantly better agreement with the observations, particularly in the Central Arctic. Although the short observational period makes forecast assessment challenging, we find that the addition of May–August SIT assimilation improves September local sea ice concentration (SIC) and extent forecasts similarly to SIC-only assimilation. Although most regional forecasts are improved by SIT assimilation, the Chukchi Sea forecasts are degraded. This degradation is likely due to the introduction of negative correlations between September SIC and earlier SIT introduced by SIT assimilation, contrary to the increased correlations found in other regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Arctic Chukchi Sea Geophysical Research Letters 50 24
institution Open Polar
collection University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive
op_collection_id ftunivtroemsoe
language English
description Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011 to 2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean–sea ice model. The model's SIT anomaly field is brought into significantly better agreement with the observations, particularly in the Central Arctic. Although the short observational period makes forecast assessment challenging, we find that the addition of May–August SIT assimilation improves September local sea ice concentration (SIC) and extent forecasts similarly to SIC-only assimilation. Although most regional forecasts are improved by SIT assimilation, the Chukchi Sea forecasts are degraded. This degradation is likely due to the introduction of negative correlations between September SIC and earlier SIT introduced by SIT assimilation, contrary to the increased correlations found in other regions.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Zhang, Yong-Fei
Bushuk, Mitchell
Winton, Michael
Hurlin, Bill
Gregory, William
Landy, Jack Christopher
Jia, Liwei
spellingShingle Zhang, Yong-Fei
Bushuk, Mitchell
Winton, Michael
Hurlin, Bill
Gregory, William
Landy, Jack Christopher
Jia, Liwei
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
author_facet Zhang, Yong-Fei
Bushuk, Mitchell
Winton, Michael
Hurlin, Bill
Gregory, William
Landy, Jack Christopher
Jia, Liwei
author_sort Zhang, Yong-Fei
title Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
title_short Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
title_full Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
title_fullStr Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
title_full_unstemmed Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
title_sort improvements in september arctic sea ice predictions via assimilation of summer cryosat-2 sea ice thickness observations
publisher Wiley
publishDate 2023
url https://hdl.handle.net/10037/32690
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672
geographic Arctic
Chukchi Sea
geographic_facet Arctic
Chukchi Sea
genre Arctic
Arctic
Chukchi
Chukchi Sea
Sea ice
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic
Chukchi
Chukchi Sea
Sea ice
op_relation Geophysical Research Letters
Zhang, Bushuk, Winton, Hurlin, Gregory, Landy, Jia. Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations. Geophysical Research Letters. 2023;50(24)
FRIDAID 2218781
doi:10.1029/2023GL105672
0094-8276
1944-8007
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/32690
op_rights Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)
openAccess
Copyright 2023 The Author(s)
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672
container_title Geophysical Research Letters
container_volume 50
container_issue 24
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