On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity is the change of the global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration. It is typically used to describe climate change and to inform decision-making for mitigation and adaptation. Climate sensitivity is often estimated in numerical climate model...
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UiT Norges arktiske universitet
2023
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/31607 2023-11-12T04:22:21+01:00 On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity Eiselt, Kai-Uwe 2023-11-03 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/31607 eng eng UiT Norges arktiske universitet UiT The Arctic University of Norway Paper I: Eiselt, K.-U. & Graversen, R.G. (2022). Change in climate sensitivity and its dependence on the lapse-rate feedback in 4xCO 2 climate model experiments. Journal of Climate, 35 (9), 2919-2932. © Copyright 19 April 2022 American Meteorological Society . Also available in Munin at https://hdl.handle.net/10037/31625 . Paper II: Eiselt, K.-U. & Graversen, R.G. (2023). On the control of Northern Hemispheric feedbacks by AMOC: Evidence from CMIP and slab-ocean modeling. Journal of Climate, 36 (19), 6777-6795. © Copyright 6 September 2023 American Meteorological Society . Not available in Munin due to publisher’s restrictions. Available at https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0884.1 . Paper III: Eiselt, K.-U. & Graversen, R.G. On the impact of net-zero forcing Q-flux changes. (Submitted manuscript). Preprint available on Research Square at https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3348403/v1 . Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Reference: Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J. & Meehl, G.A. (2009). A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. Technical report . Data available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/ . Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Reference: Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G.A., Senior, C.A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.J. & Taylor, K.E. (2016). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 , 1937–1958, available at https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 . Data available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ . 978-82-8236-546-8 - printed version 978-82-8236-547-5 - pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10037/31607 embargoedAccess Copyright 2023 The Author(s) climate modelling sensitivity feedback DOKTOR-004 Doctoral thesis Doktorgradsavhandling 2023 ftunivtroemsoe 2023-10-25T23:07:51Z Climate sensitivity is the change of the global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration. It is typically used to describe climate change and to inform decision-making for mitigation and adaptation. Climate sensitivity is often estimated in numerical climate model experiments. A remarkable result from these experiments is that climate sensitivity changes over time. This has been explained by the so-called pattern effect: Surface-warming patterns shift over time and trigger different feedback processes, hereby changing climate sensitivity. The aim of this thesis is to study the time-dependence of climate sensitivity and the pattern effect in climate models. Publicly available model data are employed to investigate differences between climate sensitivity change and its dependence on feedback processes across models. Moreover, proprietary model simulations with prescribed surface heat transport changes are conduced to study the pattern effect. The lapse-rate and cloud feedbacks are found to be strongly influenced by surface-warming pattern changes and drive the climate sensitivity change over time. Warming in different geographical regions has different impacts: Warming in the Southern Ocean changes climate sensitivity more than warming in the North Atlantic. To provide more robust climate sensitivity estimates, the representation of surface-warming patterns in climate models should be improved. Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis North Atlantic Southern Ocean University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
climate modelling sensitivity feedback DOKTOR-004 |
spellingShingle |
climate modelling sensitivity feedback DOKTOR-004 Eiselt, Kai-Uwe On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
topic_facet |
climate modelling sensitivity feedback DOKTOR-004 |
description |
Climate sensitivity is the change of the global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration. It is typically used to describe climate change and to inform decision-making for mitigation and adaptation. Climate sensitivity is often estimated in numerical climate model experiments. A remarkable result from these experiments is that climate sensitivity changes over time. This has been explained by the so-called pattern effect: Surface-warming patterns shift over time and trigger different feedback processes, hereby changing climate sensitivity. The aim of this thesis is to study the time-dependence of climate sensitivity and the pattern effect in climate models. Publicly available model data are employed to investigate differences between climate sensitivity change and its dependence on feedback processes across models. Moreover, proprietary model simulations with prescribed surface heat transport changes are conduced to study the pattern effect. The lapse-rate and cloud feedbacks are found to be strongly influenced by surface-warming pattern changes and drive the climate sensitivity change over time. Warming in different geographical regions has different impacts: Warming in the Southern Ocean changes climate sensitivity more than warming in the North Atlantic. To provide more robust climate sensitivity estimates, the representation of surface-warming patterns in climate models should be improved. |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Eiselt, Kai-Uwe |
author_facet |
Eiselt, Kai-Uwe |
author_sort |
Eiselt, Kai-Uwe |
title |
On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
title_short |
On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
title_full |
On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
title_fullStr |
On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
title_sort |
on the time-dependence of climate sensitivity |
publisher |
UiT Norges arktiske universitet |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/31607 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Paper I: Eiselt, K.-U. & Graversen, R.G. (2022). Change in climate sensitivity and its dependence on the lapse-rate feedback in 4xCO 2 climate model experiments. Journal of Climate, 35 (9), 2919-2932. © Copyright 19 April 2022 American Meteorological Society . Also available in Munin at https://hdl.handle.net/10037/31625 . Paper II: Eiselt, K.-U. & Graversen, R.G. (2023). On the control of Northern Hemispheric feedbacks by AMOC: Evidence from CMIP and slab-ocean modeling. Journal of Climate, 36 (19), 6777-6795. © Copyright 6 September 2023 American Meteorological Society . Not available in Munin due to publisher’s restrictions. Available at https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0884.1 . Paper III: Eiselt, K.-U. & Graversen, R.G. On the impact of net-zero forcing Q-flux changes. (Submitted manuscript). Preprint available on Research Square at https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3348403/v1 . Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Reference: Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J. & Meehl, G.A. (2009). A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. Technical report . Data available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/ . Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Reference: Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G.A., Senior, C.A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.J. & Taylor, K.E. (2016). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 , 1937–1958, available at https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 . Data available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ . 978-82-8236-546-8 - printed version 978-82-8236-547-5 - pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10037/31607 |
op_rights |
embargoedAccess Copyright 2023 The Author(s) |
_version_ |
1782337416619622400 |