Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony
Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climat...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/28050 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210144119 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/28050 2023-05-15T15:08:27+02:00 Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Pedro Guilherme Ims, Rolf Anker Sørbye, Sigrunn Holbek Yoccoz, Nigel 2022-12-15 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/28050 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210144119 eng eng National Academy of Sciences Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Ims, Sørbye, Yoccoz. Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022;119(51) FRIDAID 2099801 doi:10.1073/pnas.2210144119 0027-8424 1091-6490 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/28050 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) openAccess Copyright 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 CC-BY-NC-ND Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2022 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210144119 2023-01-12T00:02:50Z Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climatic seasonality and sequential density dependence influences local population dynamics, the role of season-specific density dependence in shaping large-scale population synchrony has not received attention. Here, we present a widely applicable analytical protocol that allows us to account for both season and geographic context-specific density dependence to better elucidate the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic sources of population synchrony, including the renowned Moran effect. We exemplify our protocol by analyzing time series of seasonal (spring and fall) abundance estimates of cyclic rodent populations, revealing that season-specific density dependence is a major component of population synchrony. By accounting for deterministic sources of synchrony (in particular season-specific density dependence), we are able to identify stochastic components. These stochastic components include mild winter weather events, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate warming in boreal and Arctic ecosystems. Interestingly, these weather effects act both directly and delayed on the vole populations, thus enhancing the Moran effect. Our study demonstrates how different drivers of population synchrony, presently altered by climate warming, can be disentangled based on seasonally sampled population time-series data and adequate population models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Arctic Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 51 |
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University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
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language |
English |
description |
Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climatic seasonality and sequential density dependence influences local population dynamics, the role of season-specific density dependence in shaping large-scale population synchrony has not received attention. Here, we present a widely applicable analytical protocol that allows us to account for both season and geographic context-specific density dependence to better elucidate the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic sources of population synchrony, including the renowned Moran effect. We exemplify our protocol by analyzing time series of seasonal (spring and fall) abundance estimates of cyclic rodent populations, revealing that season-specific density dependence is a major component of population synchrony. By accounting for deterministic sources of synchrony (in particular season-specific density dependence), we are able to identify stochastic components. These stochastic components include mild winter weather events, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate warming in boreal and Arctic ecosystems. Interestingly, these weather effects act both directly and delayed on the vole populations, thus enhancing the Moran effect. Our study demonstrates how different drivers of population synchrony, presently altered by climate warming, can be disentangled based on seasonally sampled population time-series data and adequate population models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Pedro Guilherme Ims, Rolf Anker Sørbye, Sigrunn Holbek Yoccoz, Nigel |
spellingShingle |
Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Pedro Guilherme Ims, Rolf Anker Sørbye, Sigrunn Holbek Yoccoz, Nigel Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
author_facet |
Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Pedro Guilherme Ims, Rolf Anker Sørbye, Sigrunn Holbek Yoccoz, Nigel |
author_sort |
Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Pedro Guilherme |
title |
Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
title_short |
Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
title_full |
Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
title_fullStr |
Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
title_sort |
seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/28050 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210144119 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Antunes Lopes Da Silva Nicolau, Ims, Sørbye, Yoccoz. Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022;119(51) FRIDAID 2099801 doi:10.1073/pnas.2210144119 0027-8424 1091-6490 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/28050 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) openAccess Copyright 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210144119 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
119 |
container_issue |
51 |
_version_ |
1766339818335240192 |