Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records
Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial– interstadial tra...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/27537 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/27537 2023-05-15T16:00:03+02:00 Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik Riechers, Keno Rypdal, Martin Wibe Boers, Niklas 2022-06-20 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/27537 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 eng eng Copernicus Publications Climate of the Past info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/ 820970/EU/Tipping Points in the Earth System/TiPES/ Myrvoll-Nilsen, Riechers, Rypdal, Boers. Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records. Climate of the Past. 2022;18(6):1275-1294 FRIDAID 2055312 doi:10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/27537 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) openAccess Copyright 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2022 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 2022-12-01T00:02:23Z Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial– interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. Article in Journal/Newspaper Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Greenland Climate of the Past 18 6 1275 1294 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
description |
Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial– interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik Riechers, Keno Rypdal, Martin Wibe Boers, Niklas |
spellingShingle |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik Riechers, Keno Rypdal, Martin Wibe Boers, Niklas Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
author_facet |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik Riechers, Keno Rypdal, Martin Wibe Boers, Niklas |
author_sort |
Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik |
title |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_short |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_full |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_fullStr |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_sort |
comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of greenland warmings in the greenland ice core records |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/27537 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core |
genre_facet |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core |
op_relation |
Climate of the Past info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/ 820970/EU/Tipping Points in the Earth System/TiPES/ Myrvoll-Nilsen, Riechers, Rypdal, Boers. Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records. Climate of the Past. 2022;18(6):1275-1294 FRIDAID 2055312 doi:10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/27537 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) openAccess Copyright 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1275 |
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1294 |
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1766395920305356800 |