Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming
We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24842 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/24842 2023-05-15T14:24:44+02:00 Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Björnsson, Halldór Overland, James E. 2019-07-08 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24842 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 eng eng Wiley International Journal of Climatology info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/707262/EU/Links between warming Arctic and climate extremes in northern Eurasia/LAWINE/ Vihma T, Graversen R, Chen L, Handorf D, Skific N, Francis JA, Tyrrell, Hall R, Hanna E, Uotila P, Dethloff K, Karpechko AY, Björnsson H, Overland JE. Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming. International Journal of Climatology. 2020;40:509–529 FRIDAID 1716031 doi:10.1002/joc.6225 0899-8418 1097-0088 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24842 openAccess Copyright 2019 The Author(s) Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2019 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 2022-04-27T22:58:30Z We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and backtrajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Largescale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry-static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic-wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA- and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Arctic International Journal of Climatology 40 1 509 529 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
description |
We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and backtrajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Largescale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry-static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic-wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA- and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Björnsson, Halldór Overland, James E. |
spellingShingle |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Björnsson, Halldór Overland, James E. Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
author_facet |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Björnsson, Halldór Overland, James E. |
author_sort |
Vihma, Timo |
title |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_short |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_full |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_fullStr |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_sort |
effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on european winter temperatures during the period of amplified arctic warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24842 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
International Journal of Climatology info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/707262/EU/Links between warming Arctic and climate extremes in northern Eurasia/LAWINE/ Vihma T, Graversen R, Chen L, Handorf D, Skific N, Francis JA, Tyrrell, Hall R, Hanna E, Uotila P, Dethloff K, Karpechko AY, Björnsson H, Overland JE. Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming. International Journal of Climatology. 2020;40:509–529 FRIDAID 1716031 doi:10.1002/joc.6225 0899-8418 1097-0088 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24842 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2019 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
509 |
op_container_end_page |
529 |
_version_ |
1766297186628272128 |