Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments
This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested f...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24662 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/24662 2023-05-15T17:31:34+02:00 Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments Nilsen, Tine Talento, Stefanie Werner, Johannes P 2021-07-06 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24662 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 eng eng Elsevier Quaternary Science Reviews Nilsen T, Talento S, Werner JP. Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2021;265:107009-107009 FRIDAID 2012363 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 0277-3791 1873-457X https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24662 openAccess Copyright 2021 The Author(s) VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 Klimadynamikk / Climate dynamics Paleoklima / Paleoclimate Statistikk / Statistics Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2021 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 2022-04-06T22:58:30Z This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Quaternary Science Reviews 265 107009 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 Klimadynamikk / Climate dynamics Paleoklima / Paleoclimate Statistikk / Statistics |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 Klimadynamikk / Climate dynamics Paleoklima / Paleoclimate Statistikk / Statistics Nilsen, Tine Talento, Stefanie Werner, Johannes P Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
topic_facet |
VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400 Klimadynamikk / Climate dynamics Paleoklima / Paleoclimate Statistikk / Statistics |
description |
This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nilsen, Tine Talento, Stefanie Werner, Johannes P |
author_facet |
Nilsen, Tine Talento, Stefanie Werner, Johannes P |
author_sort |
Nilsen, Tine |
title |
Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
title_short |
Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
title_full |
Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
title_fullStr |
Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
title_sort |
constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the north atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24662 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Quaternary Science Reviews Nilsen T, Talento S, Werner JP. Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2021;265:107009-107009 FRIDAID 2012363 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 0277-3791 1873-457X https://hdl.handle.net/10037/24662 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2021 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107009 |
container_title |
Quaternary Science Reviews |
container_volume |
265 |
container_start_page |
107009 |
_version_ |
1766129228017827840 |