Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter
Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model syst...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22892 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/22892 2023-05-15T14:24:12+02:00 Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger 2020-10-28 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22892 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 eng eng Taylor & Francis Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/POLARPROG/280573/Norway/Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic: Enhanced capacity from observations and polar process representations/ALERTNESS/ Valkonen TM, Stoll P, Batrak, Køltzow M, Schneider, Stigter, Aashamar, Støylen, Jonassen MO. Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 2020;72(1):1-21 FRIDAID 1881645 doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 0280-6495 1600-0870 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22892 openAccess Copyright 2020 The Author(s) VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Physics: 430 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Fysikk: 430 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2020 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 2021-11-03T23:55:07Z Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The impact of the increased resolution on the forecasts’ ability to represent boundary-layer processes is investigated for the period from 12 to 16 February 2018 in an Arctic fjord-valley system in the Svalbard archipelago. Model simulations are compared to a wide range of observations conducted during a field campaign. The model configuration with sub-kilometre grid spacing improves both the spatial structure and overall verification scores for the near-surface temperature and wind forecasts compared to the 2.5-km experiment. The subkilometre experiment successfully captures the wind channelling through the valley and the temperature field associated with it. In a situation of a cold-air pool development, the sub-kilometre experiment has a particularly high near-surface temperature bias at low elevations. The use of measurement campaign data, however, reveals some encouraging results, e.g. the sub-kilometre system has a more realistic vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, and the surface temperature sensitivity to the net surface energy is closer to the observations. This work demonstrates the potential of sub-kilometre NWP systems for forecasting weather in complex Arctic terrain, and also suggests that the increase in resolution needs to be accompanied with further development of other parts of the model system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Svalbard University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 72 1 1838181 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Physics: 430 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Fysikk: 430 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Physics: 430 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Fysikk: 430 Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
topic_facet |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Physics: 430 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Fysikk: 430 |
description |
Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The impact of the increased resolution on the forecasts’ ability to represent boundary-layer processes is investigated for the period from 12 to 16 February 2018 in an Arctic fjord-valley system in the Svalbard archipelago. Model simulations are compared to a wide range of observations conducted during a field campaign. The model configuration with sub-kilometre grid spacing improves both the spatial structure and overall verification scores for the near-surface temperature and wind forecasts compared to the 2.5-km experiment. The subkilometre experiment successfully captures the wind channelling through the valley and the temperature field associated with it. In a situation of a cold-air pool development, the sub-kilometre experiment has a particularly high near-surface temperature bias at low elevations. The use of measurement campaign data, however, reveals some encouraging results, e.g. the sub-kilometre system has a more realistic vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, and the surface temperature sensitivity to the net surface energy is closer to the observations. This work demonstrates the potential of sub-kilometre NWP systems for forecasting weather in complex Arctic terrain, and also suggests that the increase in resolution needs to be accompanied with further development of other parts of the model system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger |
author_facet |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger |
author_sort |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria |
title |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_short |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_full |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_sort |
evaluation of a sub-kilometre nwp system in an arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22892 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Svalbard |
op_relation |
Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/POLARPROG/280573/Norway/Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic: Enhanced capacity from observations and polar process representations/ALERTNESS/ Valkonen TM, Stoll P, Batrak, Køltzow M, Schneider, Stigter, Aashamar, Støylen, Jonassen MO. Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 2020;72(1):1-21 FRIDAID 1881645 doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 0280-6495 1600-0870 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22892 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2020 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1838181 |
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1766296654015627264 |