Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus)
In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with comp...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22208 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7296 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/22208 2023-05-15T18:01:47+02:00 Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) Cubaynes, Sarah Aars, Jon Yoccoz, Nigel Pradel, Roger Wiig, Øystein Ims, Rolf Anker Gimenez, Olivier 2021-03-10 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22208 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7296 eng eng Wiley Ecology and Evolution Cubaynes, Aars, Yoccoz, Pradel, Wiig, Ims, Gimenez. Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Ecology and Evolution. 2021;11(7):3380-3392 FRIDAID 1926878 doi:10.1002/ece3.7296 2045-7758 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22208 openAccess Copyright 2021 The Author(s) VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2021 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7296 2021-08-25T22:53:43Z In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories. We designed a capture–recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple-year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade-offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent's survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long-term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability. Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple-year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long-living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction. Article in Journal/Newspaper polar bear Svalbard Ursus maritimus University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Svalbard Ecology and Evolution 11 7 3380 3392 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 Cubaynes, Sarah Aars, Jon Yoccoz, Nigel Pradel, Roger Wiig, Øystein Ims, Rolf Anker Gimenez, Olivier Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) |
topic_facet |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 |
description |
In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories. We designed a capture–recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple-year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade-offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent's survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long-term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability. Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple-year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long-living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cubaynes, Sarah Aars, Jon Yoccoz, Nigel Pradel, Roger Wiig, Øystein Ims, Rolf Anker Gimenez, Olivier |
author_facet |
Cubaynes, Sarah Aars, Jon Yoccoz, Nigel Pradel, Roger Wiig, Øystein Ims, Rolf Anker Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Cubaynes, Sarah |
title |
Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) |
title_short |
Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) |
title_full |
Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) |
title_sort |
modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: a capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (ursus maritimus) |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22208 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7296 |
geographic |
Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Svalbard |
genre |
polar bear Svalbard Ursus maritimus |
genre_facet |
polar bear Svalbard Ursus maritimus |
op_relation |
Ecology and Evolution Cubaynes, Aars, Yoccoz, Pradel, Wiig, Ims, Gimenez. Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Ecology and Evolution. 2021;11(7):3380-3392 FRIDAID 1926878 doi:10.1002/ece3.7296 2045-7758 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/22208 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2021 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7296 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3380 |
op_container_end_page |
3392 |
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1766171301882363904 |