Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas
The increasing amount of intermittant wind energy sources connected to the power grid present several challenges in balancing the power network. Accurate prediction of wind power production is identified as one of the most important measures for balancing the power network while maintaining a sustai...
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UiT The Arctic University of Norway
2021
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/21939 2023-05-15T17:43:35+02:00 Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas Sæther, Brynhild Bentsen 2021-06-29 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/21939 eng eng UiT The Arctic University of Norway UiT Norges arktiske universitet https://hdl.handle.net/10037/21939 openAccess Copyright 2021 The Author(s) EOM-3901 Master’s thesis in Energy Climate and Environment VDP::Technology: 500::Electrotechnical disciplines: 540::Electrical power engineering: 542 VDP::Teknologi: 500::Elektrotekniske fag: 540::Elkraft: 542 VDP::Social science: 200::Urbanism and physical planning: 230 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Urbanisme og fysisk planlegging: 230 EOM-3901 Master thesis Mastergradsoppgave 2021 ftunivtroemsoe 2021-08-11T22:53:41Z The increasing amount of intermittant wind energy sources connected to the power grid present several challenges in balancing the power network. Accurate prediction of wind power production is identified as one of the most important measures for balancing the power network while maintaining a sustainable integration of wind power in the power grid. However, the volatile nature of wind makes wind power forecasting a complicated task, and it is known that the performance of already established wind power prediction models decreases for wind farms in complex terrain sites. This thesis aims to forecast the future wind power output for five different wind farms in Northern Norway using methods from statistics and machine learning. The wind farm sites are generally characterized as complex terrain areas with good wind resources. Four different prediction models are developed for short to medium-term, multi- step prediction of wind power, ranging from traditional statistical models such as the arimax process to complex machine learning models. Additionally, two of the models are implemented both using the recursive and the direct multi- step forecasting technique. For each wind farm, the models are evaluated for an entire year and utilize multivariate input data with variables from a nwp model. The results of the experiments varied greatly across all locations. It was seen that the implemented models were outperformed by the persistence model for short forecasting horizons. However, when the forecasting horizon increased, several models showed a lower error than the persistence model. Master Thesis Northern Norway University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Norway |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
EOM-3901 Master’s thesis in Energy Climate and Environment VDP::Technology: 500::Electrotechnical disciplines: 540::Electrical power engineering: 542 VDP::Teknologi: 500::Elektrotekniske fag: 540::Elkraft: 542 VDP::Social science: 200::Urbanism and physical planning: 230 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Urbanisme og fysisk planlegging: 230 EOM-3901 |
spellingShingle |
EOM-3901 Master’s thesis in Energy Climate and Environment VDP::Technology: 500::Electrotechnical disciplines: 540::Electrical power engineering: 542 VDP::Teknologi: 500::Elektrotekniske fag: 540::Elkraft: 542 VDP::Social science: 200::Urbanism and physical planning: 230 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Urbanisme og fysisk planlegging: 230 EOM-3901 Sæther, Brynhild Bentsen Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas |
topic_facet |
EOM-3901 Master’s thesis in Energy Climate and Environment VDP::Technology: 500::Electrotechnical disciplines: 540::Electrical power engineering: 542 VDP::Teknologi: 500::Elektrotekniske fag: 540::Elkraft: 542 VDP::Social science: 200::Urbanism and physical planning: 230 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Urbanisme og fysisk planlegging: 230 EOM-3901 |
description |
The increasing amount of intermittant wind energy sources connected to the power grid present several challenges in balancing the power network. Accurate prediction of wind power production is identified as one of the most important measures for balancing the power network while maintaining a sustainable integration of wind power in the power grid. However, the volatile nature of wind makes wind power forecasting a complicated task, and it is known that the performance of already established wind power prediction models decreases for wind farms in complex terrain sites. This thesis aims to forecast the future wind power output for five different wind farms in Northern Norway using methods from statistics and machine learning. The wind farm sites are generally characterized as complex terrain areas with good wind resources. Four different prediction models are developed for short to medium-term, multi- step prediction of wind power, ranging from traditional statistical models such as the arimax process to complex machine learning models. Additionally, two of the models are implemented both using the recursive and the direct multi- step forecasting technique. For each wind farm, the models are evaluated for an entire year and utilize multivariate input data with variables from a nwp model. The results of the experiments varied greatly across all locations. It was seen that the implemented models were outperformed by the persistence model for short forecasting horizons. However, when the forecasting horizon increased, several models showed a lower error than the persistence model. |
format |
Master Thesis |
author |
Sæther, Brynhild Bentsen |
author_facet |
Sæther, Brynhild Bentsen |
author_sort |
Sæther, Brynhild Bentsen |
title |
Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas |
title_short |
Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas |
title_full |
Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas |
title_fullStr |
Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas |
title_sort |
wind power prediction with machine learning methods in complex terrain areas |
publisher |
UiT The Arctic University of Norway |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/21939 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Northern Norway |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway |
op_relation |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/21939 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2021 The Author(s) |
_version_ |
1766145704939487232 |