The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change
Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperature...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19973 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/19973 2023-05-15T14:23:29+02:00 The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change Dankel, Dorothy Jane Tiller, Rachel Koelma, Elske Lam, Vicky W.Y. Liu, Yajie 2020-07-08 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19973 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 eng eng Frontiers Media Frontiers in Marine Science info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/POLARPROG/257628/Norway/An interdisciplinary investigation into scenarios of national and intl conflicts in the Svalbard zone under a changing climate in the Arctic// Dankel, Tiller, Koelma, Lam, Liu. The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2020;7:537:1-17 FRIDAID 1854442 doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 2296-7745 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19973 openAccess Copyright 2020 The Author(s) VDP::Social science: 200::Economics: 210 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2020 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 2021-06-25T17:57:49Z Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a rapid expansion of the mackerel stock which has spurred both geo-political tensions but also tensions at the science-policy interface of fish quota setting. These local climate-induced changes have created a domino-like chain reaction that intensifies through time as a warming Arctic penetrates deeper into responsibilities of governing institutions and science institutions. In face with the increasing uncertain futures of climate-induced changes, policy choices also increase revealing a type of “snowballing” of possible futures facing decision-makers. We introduce a portmanteau-inspired concept called “The Melting Snowball Effect” that encompasses the chain reaction (“domino effect”) that increases the number of plausible scenarios (“snowball effect”) with climate change (melting snow, ice and thawing permafrost). We demonstrate the use of “The Melting Snowball Effect” as a heuristic within a Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework of anticipation, engagement and reflection. To do this, we developed plausible scenarios based on participatory stakeholder workshops and narratives from in-depth interviews for deliberative discussions among academics, citizens and policymakers, designed for informed decision-making in response to climate change complexities. We observe generational differences in discussing future climate scenarios, particularly that the mixed group where three generations were represented had the most diverse and thorough deliberations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice Longyearbyen North Atlantic permafrost Svalbard University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Arctic Longyearbyen Svalbard Frontiers in Marine Science 7 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Social science: 200::Economics: 210 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210 |
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VDP::Social science: 200::Economics: 210 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210 Dankel, Dorothy Jane Tiller, Rachel Koelma, Elske Lam, Vicky W.Y. Liu, Yajie The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change |
topic_facet |
VDP::Social science: 200::Economics: 210 VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210 |
description |
Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a rapid expansion of the mackerel stock which has spurred both geo-political tensions but also tensions at the science-policy interface of fish quota setting. These local climate-induced changes have created a domino-like chain reaction that intensifies through time as a warming Arctic penetrates deeper into responsibilities of governing institutions and science institutions. In face with the increasing uncertain futures of climate-induced changes, policy choices also increase revealing a type of “snowballing” of possible futures facing decision-makers. We introduce a portmanteau-inspired concept called “The Melting Snowball Effect” that encompasses the chain reaction (“domino effect”) that increases the number of plausible scenarios (“snowball effect”) with climate change (melting snow, ice and thawing permafrost). We demonstrate the use of “The Melting Snowball Effect” as a heuristic within a Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework of anticipation, engagement and reflection. To do this, we developed plausible scenarios based on participatory stakeholder workshops and narratives from in-depth interviews for deliberative discussions among academics, citizens and policymakers, designed for informed decision-making in response to climate change complexities. We observe generational differences in discussing future climate scenarios, particularly that the mixed group where three generations were represented had the most diverse and thorough deliberations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dankel, Dorothy Jane Tiller, Rachel Koelma, Elske Lam, Vicky W.Y. Liu, Yajie |
author_facet |
Dankel, Dorothy Jane Tiller, Rachel Koelma, Elske Lam, Vicky W.Y. Liu, Yajie |
author_sort |
Dankel, Dorothy Jane |
title |
The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change |
title_short |
The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change |
title_full |
The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change |
title_fullStr |
The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change |
title_sort |
melting snowball effect: a heuristic for sustainable arctic governance under climate change |
publisher |
Frontiers Media |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19973 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 |
geographic |
Arctic Longyearbyen Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Longyearbyen Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice Longyearbyen North Atlantic permafrost Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice Longyearbyen North Atlantic permafrost Svalbard |
op_relation |
Frontiers in Marine Science info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/POLARPROG/257628/Norway/An interdisciplinary investigation into scenarios of national and intl conflicts in the Svalbard zone under a changing climate in the Arctic// Dankel, Tiller, Koelma, Lam, Liu. The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2020;7:537:1-17 FRIDAID 1854442 doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 2296-7745 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19973 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2020 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00537 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
7 |
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1766296030453694464 |