On Context, Issues, and Pitfalls of Expert Judgement Process in Risk Assessment of Arctic Offshore Installations and Operations

• Published in: 2018 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM)
• Main Authors: Naseri, Masoud, Barabadi, Abbas
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) 2018
• Subjects: VDP::Technology: 500; VDP::Teknologi: 500; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10037/14594; https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEM.2018.8607350

Accepted manuscript version. Published version available at https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEM.2018.8607350 Decisions to be made in the Arctic offshore operations rely extensively on risk assessment outputs, which require a great deal of historical data and information. However, at the current stage of operating in the Arctic offshore – compared to normal-climate regions – such data is scarce due to the limited industrial activities to date. Lack of data on the probability of the occurrence of an unwanted event and, given severe Arctic environmental conditions, the extent of potential severe consequences pose a great deal of challenges and issues for decision-makers. A widely acceptable alternative is the use of expert judgement process. However, this is faced with some issues and pitfalls, which may raise questions regarding the objectivity and level of uncertainty of risk assessment outputs. In this paper, we discuss such issues and pitfalls associated with expert judgement application in risk assessment of Arctic offshore operations.