Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition
Source: Journal of Climate doi:10.4236/am.2016.715143 © 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work th...
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/10772 2023-05-15T16:27:42+02:00 Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition Rypdal, Martin wibe 2016-05-20 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/10772 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1 eng eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/KLIMAFORSK/229754/Norway/Long-range memory in Earths climate response and its implications for future global warming Møllersen, K., Dhar, S.S. and Godtliebsen, F. (2016) On Data-Independent Properties for Density-Based Dissimilarity Measures in Hybrid Clustering. Applied Mathematics , 7, 1674-1706. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/am.2016.715143 FRIDAID 1350399 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1 0894-8755 1520-0442 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/10772 openAccess VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed 2016 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1 https://doi.org/10.4236/am.2016.715143 2021-06-25T17:55:12Z Source: Journal of Climate doi:10.4236/am.2016.715143 © 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. The climate system approaches a tipping point if the prevailing climate state loses stability, making a transition to a different state possible. A result from the theory of randomly driven dynamical systems is that the reduced stability in the vicinity of a tipping point is accompanied by increasing fluctuation levels and longer correlation times (critical slowing down) and can in principle serve as early-warning signals of an upcoming tipping point. This study demonstrates that the high-frequency band of the δ18O variations in the North Greenland Ice Core Project displays fluctuation levels that increase as one approaches the onset of an interstadial (warm) period. Similar results are found for the locally estimated Hurst exponent for the high-frequency fluctuations, signaling longer correlation times. The observed slowing down is found to be even stronger in the Younger Dryas, suggesting that both the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition and the onsets of the Greenland interstadials are preceded by decreasing stability of the climate state. It is also verified that the temperature fluctuations during the stadial periods can be approximately modeled as a scale-invariant persistent noise, which can be approximated as an aggregation of processes that respond to perturbations on certain characteristic time scales. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that both the onsets of the Greenland interstadials and the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition are caused by tipping points in dynamical processes with characteristic time scales on the order of decades and that the variability of other processes on longer time scales masks the early-warning signatures in the δ18O signal. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Greenland Journal of Climate 29 11 4047 4056 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400 Rypdal, Martin wibe Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
topic_facet |
VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400 |
description |
Source: Journal of Climate doi:10.4236/am.2016.715143 © 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. The climate system approaches a tipping point if the prevailing climate state loses stability, making a transition to a different state possible. A result from the theory of randomly driven dynamical systems is that the reduced stability in the vicinity of a tipping point is accompanied by increasing fluctuation levels and longer correlation times (critical slowing down) and can in principle serve as early-warning signals of an upcoming tipping point. This study demonstrates that the high-frequency band of the δ18O variations in the North Greenland Ice Core Project displays fluctuation levels that increase as one approaches the onset of an interstadial (warm) period. Similar results are found for the locally estimated Hurst exponent for the high-frequency fluctuations, signaling longer correlation times. The observed slowing down is found to be even stronger in the Younger Dryas, suggesting that both the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition and the onsets of the Greenland interstadials are preceded by decreasing stability of the climate state. It is also verified that the temperature fluctuations during the stadial periods can be approximately modeled as a scale-invariant persistent noise, which can be approximated as an aggregation of processes that respond to perturbations on certain characteristic time scales. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that both the onsets of the Greenland interstadials and the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition are caused by tipping points in dynamical processes with characteristic time scales on the order of decades and that the variability of other processes on longer time scales masks the early-warning signatures in the δ18O signal. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rypdal, Martin wibe |
author_facet |
Rypdal, Martin wibe |
author_sort |
Rypdal, Martin wibe |
title |
Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
title_short |
Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
title_full |
Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
title_fullStr |
Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
title_sort |
early-warning signals for the onsets of greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/10772 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/KLIMAFORSK/229754/Norway/Long-range memory in Earths climate response and its implications for future global warming Møllersen, K., Dhar, S.S. and Godtliebsen, F. (2016) On Data-Independent Properties for Density-Based Dissimilarity Measures in Hybrid Clustering. Applied Mathematics , 7, 1674-1706. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/am.2016.715143 FRIDAID 1350399 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1 0894-8755 1520-0442 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/10772 |
op_rights |
openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1 https://doi.org/10.4236/am.2016.715143 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4047 |
op_container_end_page |
4056 |
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1766017158085607424 |