Quantifying exposure of linear infrastructures to earthquake-triggered transverse landslides in permafrost thawing slopes

• Main Authors: Dadfar, Behrang, El Naggar, M. Hesham, Nastev, Miroslav
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: NRC Research Press (a division of Canadian Science Publishing) 2017
• Subjects: Ice; permafrost
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/1807/77586; http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cgj-2017-0076

The seismic shaking can cause slope instability in otherwise relatively stable permafrost terrains. In addition, rapid ice melting in low-permeability fine-grained soils can lead to excess pore water pressure build up and cause instability in slopes even at small angles. This study addresses the active layer detachment (ALD) slope instability hazard and develops a systematic risk assessment framework for existing and future linear infrastructures such as energy pipelines, bridges and roads traversing permafrost regions. Mild slopes, with average gradient of 7째, are considered in this study as the most representative of actual field conditions. The potential for earthquake-triggered ALD is analytically quantified. State-of-the-art Canadian North ALD morphological statistics are combined with seismic slope stability analyses to determine: (i) the probability of linear infrastructure exposure to permanent ground deformations (PGD) caused by ALD, and (ii) the extent of the potential PGD that the linear infrastructure may be subjected to. Monte Carlo technique is applied to simulate and assess the sensitivity of the model to parameters such as earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance. The findings from this study can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of linear infrastructures exposed to the ALD hazard. The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author.