Trends in Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and West Pacific Oceans

• Main Author: Bleakney, Sarah Ann
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange 2016
• Subjects: Tropical Cyclone; Lifetime Maximum Intensity; North Atlantic basin; Western Pacific basin; Climate; Other Earth Sciences; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/3754; https://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5046&context=utk_gradthes

Tropical cyclones threaten coastal populations around the world each year. Thus, the climatology of tropical cyclones is an immediate research need, specifically to better understand their long-term patterns and elucidate their future in a changing climate. One important pattern that has recently been detected is the poleward shift of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. My study further assesses the recent spatial changes in the LMI of tropical cyclones in the Northern Atlantic and Western Pacific basins since 1964. I explored relationships between the intensity and location of LMI with respect to landfall location using the IBTrACS dataset and ArcGIS software. I found that different trends in LMI migration have occurred in individual ocean basins, specifically southerly movement in the North Atlantic and northerly movement in the Western Pacific. Separating the storms by intensity revealed that the strongest storms follow the general trend in their basin at a faster rate. The most intense tropical cyclones are reaching maximum intensity closer to landfall in the Western Pacific basin and farther away from landfall in the North Atlantic. This combination of a poleward shift of LMI and a smaller distance between LMI and landfall for the strongest storms in the Western Pacific basin may adversely affect coastal communities. The results confirm the previous finding that the strongest storms may experience the greatest changes in a warming climate.