Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals
Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitat...
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Blackwell Publishing Ltd
2017
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Online Access: | https://eprints.utas.edu.au/43080/ https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 |
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ftunivtasmania:oai:eprints.utas.edu.au:43080 2023-05-15T13:41:50+02:00 Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals Hindell, MA Sumner, M Bestley, S Wotherspoon, S Harcourt, RG Lea, MA Alderman, R McMahon, CR 2017 https://eprints.utas.edu.au/43080/ https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 unknown Blackwell Publishing Ltd Hindell, MA orcid:0000-0002-7823-7185 , Sumner, M, Bestley, S orcid:0000-0001-9342-669X , Wotherspoon, S orcid:0000-0002-6947-4445 , Harcourt, RG, Lea, MA orcid:0000-0001-8318-9299 , Alderman, R and McMahon, CR 2017 , 'Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals' , Global Change Biology, vol. 23, no. 12 , pp. 5136-5150 , doi:10.1111/gcb.13776 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776>. bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivtasmania https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 2022-02-14T23:18:10Z Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 x 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Ross Sea Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean Victoria Land University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Ross Sea Victoria Land Global Change Biology 23 12 5136 5150 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasmania |
language |
unknown |
topic |
bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models |
spellingShingle |
bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models Hindell, MA Sumner, M Bestley, S Wotherspoon, S Harcourt, RG Lea, MA Alderman, R McMahon, CR Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
topic_facet |
bio-telemetry climate change environmental variability integrated marine observing system Macquarie Island population trends species distribution models |
description |
Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 x 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hindell, MA Sumner, M Bestley, S Wotherspoon, S Harcourt, RG Lea, MA Alderman, R McMahon, CR |
author_facet |
Hindell, MA Sumner, M Bestley, S Wotherspoon, S Harcourt, RG Lea, MA Alderman, R McMahon, CR |
author_sort |
Hindell, MA |
title |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_short |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_full |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_fullStr |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
title_sort |
decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/43080/ https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Ross Sea Victoria Land |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Ross Sea Victoria Land |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Ross Sea Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean Victoria Land |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Ross Sea Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean Victoria Land |
op_relation |
Hindell, MA orcid:0000-0002-7823-7185 , Sumner, M, Bestley, S orcid:0000-0001-9342-669X , Wotherspoon, S orcid:0000-0002-6947-4445 , Harcourt, RG, Lea, MA orcid:0000-0001-8318-9299 , Alderman, R and McMahon, CR 2017 , 'Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals' , Global Change Biology, vol. 23, no. 12 , pp. 5136-5150 , doi:10.1111/gcb.13776 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776>. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13776 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5136 |
op_container_end_page |
5150 |
_version_ |
1766158821208621056 |