The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations
Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of...
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ftunivtasmania:oai:eprints.utas.edu.au:42980 2023-05-15T13:41:50+02:00 The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T 2017 application/pdf https://eprints.utas.edu.au/42980/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/42980/1/slangen_et_al_2017%20%283%29.pdf en eng M D P I AG https://eprints.utas.edu.au/42980/1/slangen_et_al_2017%20%283%29.pdf Slangen, ABA, van de Wal, RSW, Reerink, TJ, de Winter, RC, Hunter, JR, Woodworth, PL and Edwards, T 2017 , 'The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations' , Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, vol. 5, no. 2 , pp. 1-20 , doi:10.3390/jmse5020021 <http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021>. sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivtasmania https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 2022-02-14T23:18:03Z Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics’ uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 104 at more than 50–87% of the tide gauges. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints Greenland Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5 2 21 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasmania |
language |
English |
topic |
sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes |
spellingShingle |
sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
topic_facet |
sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes |
description |
Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics’ uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 104 at more than 50–87% of the tide gauges. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T |
author_facet |
Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T |
author_sort |
Slangen, ABA |
title |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_short |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_full |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_fullStr |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_sort |
impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
publisher |
M D P I AG |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/42980/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/42980/1/slangen_et_al_2017%20%283%29.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/42980/1/slangen_et_al_2017%20%283%29.pdf Slangen, ABA, van de Wal, RSW, Reerink, TJ, de Winter, RC, Hunter, JR, Woodworth, PL and Edwards, T 2017 , 'The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations' , Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, vol. 5, no. 2 , pp. 1-20 , doi:10.3390/jmse5020021 <http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021>. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
21 |
_version_ |
1766158806771826688 |