An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3
Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the output...
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Copernicus GmbH
2021
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Online Access: | https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/1/146031%20-%20An%20iterative%20process%20for%20efficient%20optimisation%20of%20parameters%20in%20geoscientific%20models.pdf |
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ftunivtasmania:oai:eprints.utas.edu.au:37072 2023-05-15T13:31:52+02:00 An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA 2021 application/pdf https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/1/146031%20-%20An%20iterative%20process%20for%20efficient%20optimisation%20of%20parameters%20in%20geoscientific%20models.pdf en eng Copernicus GmbH https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/1/146031%20-%20An%20iterative%20process%20for%20efficient%20optimisation%20of%20parameters%20in%20geoscientific%20models.pdf Phipps, SJ orcid:0000-0001-5657-8782 , Roberts, JL and King, MA orcid:0000-0001-5611-9498 2021 , 'An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3' , Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 14, no. 8 , pp. 5107-5124 , doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021>. model optimisation ice sheet model Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivtasmania https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 2021-09-06T22:18:14Z Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints Antarctic The Antarctic Geoscientific Model Development 14 8 5107 5124 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasmania |
language |
English |
topic |
model optimisation ice sheet model |
spellingShingle |
model optimisation ice sheet model Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
topic_facet |
model optimisation ice sheet model |
description |
Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA |
author_facet |
Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA |
author_sort |
Phipps, SJ |
title |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_short |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_full |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_fullStr |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_sort |
iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the parallel ice sheet model (pism) version 0.7.3 |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/1/146031%20-%20An%20iterative%20process%20for%20efficient%20optimisation%20of%20parameters%20in%20geoscientific%20models.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37072/1/146031%20-%20An%20iterative%20process%20for%20efficient%20optimisation%20of%20parameters%20in%20geoscientific%20models.pdf Phipps, SJ orcid:0000-0001-5657-8782 , Roberts, JL and King, MA orcid:0000-0001-5611-9498 2021 , 'An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3' , Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 14, no. 8 , pp. 5107-5124 , doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021>. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
5107 |
op_container_end_page |
5124 |
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1766021734566199296 |