Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model
Characterization of uncertainty (variance) in ecosystem projections under climate change is still rare despite its importance for informing decision-making and prioritizing research. We developed an ensemble modeling framework to evaluate the relative importance of different uncertainty sources for...
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2020
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ftunivtasmania:oai:eprints.utas.edu.au:36328 2023-05-15T15:43:37+02:00 Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model Reum, JCP Blanchard, JL Holsman, KK Aydin, K Hollowed, AB Hermann, AJ Cheng, W Faig, A Haynie, AC Punt, AE 2020 application/pdf https://eprints.utas.edu.au/36328/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/36328/1/144007%20-%20Ensemble%20projections%20of%20future%20climate%20change%20impacts.pdf en eng Frontiers Research Foundation https://eprints.utas.edu.au/36328/1/144007%20-%20Ensemble%20projections%20of%20future%20climate%20change%20impacts.pdf Reum, JCP, Blanchard, JL orcid:0000-0003-0532-4824 , Holsman, KK, Aydin, K, Hollowed, AB, Hermann, AJ, Cheng, W, Faig, A, Haynie, AC and Punt, AE 2020 , 'Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model' , Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 7, no. MAR , pp. 1-17 , doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00124 <http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00124>. climate impacts projections modelling size-structure uncertainty partitioning predictive ecology Arrhenius factor body size size-based food web cumulative effects commonality analysis Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftunivtasmania https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00124 2021-05-10T22:16:27Z Characterization of uncertainty (variance) in ecosystem projections under climate change is still rare despite its importance for informing decision-making and prioritizing research. We developed an ensemble modeling framework to evaluate the relative importance of different uncertainty sources for food web projections of the eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Specifically, dynamically downscaled projections from Earth System Models (ESM) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHG) were used to force a multispecies size spectrum model (MSSM) of the EBS food web. In addition to ESM and GHG uncertainty, we incorporated uncertainty from different plausible fisheries management scenarios reflecting shifts in the total allowable catch of flatfish and gadids and different assumptions regarding temperature-dependencies on biological rates in the MSSM. Relative to historical averages (1994–2014), end-of-century (2080–2100 average) ensemble projections of community spawner stock biomass, catches, and mean body size (±standard deviation) decreased by 36% (±21%), 61% (±27%), and 38% (±25%), respectively. Long-term trends were, on average, also negative for the majority of species, but the level of trend consistency between ensemble projections was low for most species. Projection uncertainty for model outputs from ∼2020 to 2040 was driven by inter-annual climate variability for 85% of species and the community as a whole. Thereafter, structural uncertainty (different ESMs, temperature-dependency assumptions) dominated projection uncertainty. Fishery management and GHG emissions scenarios contributed little ( Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints Bering Sea Frontiers in Marine Science 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasmania |
language |
English |
topic |
climate impacts projections modelling size-structure uncertainty partitioning predictive ecology Arrhenius factor body size size-based food web cumulative effects commonality analysis |
spellingShingle |
climate impacts projections modelling size-structure uncertainty partitioning predictive ecology Arrhenius factor body size size-based food web cumulative effects commonality analysis Reum, JCP Blanchard, JL Holsman, KK Aydin, K Hollowed, AB Hermann, AJ Cheng, W Faig, A Haynie, AC Punt, AE Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
topic_facet |
climate impacts projections modelling size-structure uncertainty partitioning predictive ecology Arrhenius factor body size size-based food web cumulative effects commonality analysis |
description |
Characterization of uncertainty (variance) in ecosystem projections under climate change is still rare despite its importance for informing decision-making and prioritizing research. We developed an ensemble modeling framework to evaluate the relative importance of different uncertainty sources for food web projections of the eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Specifically, dynamically downscaled projections from Earth System Models (ESM) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHG) were used to force a multispecies size spectrum model (MSSM) of the EBS food web. In addition to ESM and GHG uncertainty, we incorporated uncertainty from different plausible fisheries management scenarios reflecting shifts in the total allowable catch of flatfish and gadids and different assumptions regarding temperature-dependencies on biological rates in the MSSM. Relative to historical averages (1994–2014), end-of-century (2080–2100 average) ensemble projections of community spawner stock biomass, catches, and mean body size (±standard deviation) decreased by 36% (±21%), 61% (±27%), and 38% (±25%), respectively. Long-term trends were, on average, also negative for the majority of species, but the level of trend consistency between ensemble projections was low for most species. Projection uncertainty for model outputs from ∼2020 to 2040 was driven by inter-annual climate variability for 85% of species and the community as a whole. Thereafter, structural uncertainty (different ESMs, temperature-dependency assumptions) dominated projection uncertainty. Fishery management and GHG emissions scenarios contributed little ( |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reum, JCP Blanchard, JL Holsman, KK Aydin, K Hollowed, AB Hermann, AJ Cheng, W Faig, A Haynie, AC Punt, AE |
author_facet |
Reum, JCP Blanchard, JL Holsman, KK Aydin, K Hollowed, AB Hermann, AJ Cheng, W Faig, A Haynie, AC Punt, AE |
author_sort |
Reum, JCP |
title |
Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
title_short |
Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
title_full |
Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
title_fullStr |
Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
title_sort |
ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern bering sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model |
publisher |
Frontiers Research Foundation |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/36328/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/36328/1/144007%20-%20Ensemble%20projections%20of%20future%20climate%20change%20impacts.pdf |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea |
op_relation |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/36328/1/144007%20-%20Ensemble%20projections%20of%20future%20climate%20change%20impacts.pdf Reum, JCP, Blanchard, JL orcid:0000-0003-0532-4824 , Holsman, KK, Aydin, K, Hollowed, AB, Hermann, AJ, Cheng, W, Faig, A, Haynie, AC and Punt, AE 2020 , 'Ensemble projections of future climate change impacts on the eastern Bering Sea food web using a multispecies size spectrum model' , Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 7, no. MAR , pp. 1-17 , doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00124 <http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00124>. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00124 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
7 |
_version_ |
1766377794713944064 |