An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of...
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ftunivtasmania:oai:eprints.utas.edu.au:28234 2023-05-15T14:26:30+02:00 An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F 2018 https://eprints.utas.edu.au/28234/ unknown Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd Arzaghi, E, Abbassi, R orcid:0000-0002-9230-6175 , Garaniya, V orcid:0000-0002-0090-147X , Binns, J orcid:0000-0001-6892-0063 and Khan, F orcid:0000-0002-5638-4299 2018 , 'An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline' , Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 135 , pp. 1117-1127 , doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030>. Bayesian network Fugacity Ecological Risk Assessment Oil spill Arctic Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivtasmania https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 2021-09-13T22:18:44Z There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints Arctic Arctic Ocean Marine Pollution Bulletin 135 1117 1127 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasmania |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Bayesian network Fugacity Ecological Risk Assessment Oil spill Arctic |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian network Fugacity Ecological Risk Assessment Oil spill Arctic Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
topic_facet |
Bayesian network Fugacity Ecological Risk Assessment Oil spill Arctic |
description |
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F |
author_facet |
Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F |
author_sort |
Arzaghi, E |
title |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_short |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_full |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_fullStr |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_full_unstemmed |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_sort |
ecological risk assessment model for arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
publisher |
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/28234/ |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
op_relation |
Arzaghi, E, Abbassi, R orcid:0000-0002-9230-6175 , Garaniya, V orcid:0000-0002-0090-147X , Binns, J orcid:0000-0001-6892-0063 and Khan, F orcid:0000-0002-5638-4299 2018 , 'An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline' , Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 135 , pp. 1117-1127 , doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030>. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 |
container_title |
Marine Pollution Bulletin |
container_volume |
135 |
container_start_page |
1117 |
op_container_end_page |
1127 |
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1766299077447778304 |