Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters
A methodology for risk analysis applicable to shipping in arctic waters is introduced. This methodology uses the Bowtie relationship to represent an accident causes and consequences. It is further used to quantify the probability of a ship accident and also the related accident consequences during n...
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The Royal Institution of Naval Architects
2017
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ftunivtasmania:oai:eprints.utas.edu.au:25334 2023-05-15T14:26:13+02:00 Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters Abbassi, R Khan, F Khakzad, N Veitch, B Ehlers, S 2017 application/pdf https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25334/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25334/1/IJME%20351_accident_arctic.pdf https://doi.org/10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351 en eng The Royal Institution of Naval Architects https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25334/1/IJME%20351_accident_arctic.pdf Abbassi, R orcid:0000-0002-9230-6175 , Khan, F orcid:0000-0002-5638-4299 , Khakzad, N, Veitch, B and Ehlers, S 2017 , 'Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters' , International Journal of Maritime Engineering, vol. 159, no. A3 , A213-A224 , doi:10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351 <http://dx.doi.org/10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351>. risk analysis Arctic water Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivtasmania https://doi.org/10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351 2021-08-16T22:17:47Z A methodology for risk analysis applicable to shipping in arctic waters is introduced. This methodology uses the Bowtie relationship to represent an accident causes and consequences. It is further used to quantify the probability of a ship accident and also the related accident consequences during navigation in arctic waters. Detailed fault trees for three possible ship accident scenarios in arctic transits are developed and represented as bowties. Factors related to cold and harsh conditions and their effects on grounding, foundering, and collision are considered as part of this study. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker navigating on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The methodology is implemented in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework to assess the uncertainties arisen from historical data and expert judgments involved in the risk analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Northern Sea Route University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tasmania: UTas ePrints |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasmania |
language |
English |
topic |
risk analysis Arctic water |
spellingShingle |
risk analysis Arctic water Abbassi, R Khan, F Khakzad, N Veitch, B Ehlers, S Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
topic_facet |
risk analysis Arctic water |
description |
A methodology for risk analysis applicable to shipping in arctic waters is introduced. This methodology uses the Bowtie relationship to represent an accident causes and consequences. It is further used to quantify the probability of a ship accident and also the related accident consequences during navigation in arctic waters. Detailed fault trees for three possible ship accident scenarios in arctic transits are developed and represented as bowties. Factors related to cold and harsh conditions and their effects on grounding, foundering, and collision are considered as part of this study. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker navigating on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The methodology is implemented in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework to assess the uncertainties arisen from historical data and expert judgments involved in the risk analysis. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbassi, R Khan, F Khakzad, N Veitch, B Ehlers, S |
author_facet |
Abbassi, R Khan, F Khakzad, N Veitch, B Ehlers, S |
author_sort |
Abbassi, R |
title |
Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
title_short |
Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
title_full |
Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
title_fullStr |
Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
title_sort |
risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters |
publisher |
The Royal Institution of Naval Architects |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25334/ https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25334/1/IJME%20351_accident_arctic.pdf https://doi.org/10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Northern Sea Route |
op_relation |
https://eprints.utas.edu.au/25334/1/IJME%20351_accident_arctic.pdf Abbassi, R orcid:0000-0002-9230-6175 , Khan, F orcid:0000-0002-5638-4299 , Khakzad, N, Veitch, B and Ehlers, S 2017 , 'Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters' , International Journal of Maritime Engineering, vol. 159, no. A3 , A213-A224 , doi:10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351 <http://dx.doi.org/10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351>. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351 |
_version_ |
1766298688352681984 |