Transportation risk analysis framework for arctic waters

• Published in: Volume 10: Polar and Arctic Science and Technology
• Main Authors: Khan, F, Yang, M, Veitch, B, Ehlers, S, Chai, S
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: American Society of Maritime Engineers 2014
• Subjects: Engineering; Maritime Engineering; Ocean Engineering; Arctic; Climate change; Iceberg*; Northern Sea Route
• Online Access: http://www.asmeconferences.org/OMAE2014/index.cfm; https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2014-23421; http://ecite.utas.edu.au/93170

Arctic waters have historically been relativelyinaccessible for marine transport. Lately, climate change hasmade more of this region ice-free in the summer season. Thishas reduced the difficulty of marine transport in Arctic waters.Further, exploration and development of natural resources isincreasing in Arctic regions, as is destinational shipping. Theunique risk factors of this region, such as extremely lowtemperature, ice conditions and drifting icebergs, continue topose threats to transportation. Potential impacts associated withmarine transportation accidents warrant contingency plans thatrecognize that preventative measures may fail. To planeffectively, a transportation accident risk assessment model forArctic waters is helpful. There is limited work on thedevelopment of such models. A new cause-consequences basedrisk assessment model is proposed here. The model estimatesthe probability of a transportation accident and also the relatedconsequences during navigation in Arctic waters. To illustratethe application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of anoil-tanker collision on the Northern Sea Route