Climate change, non-indigenous species and shipping: assessing the risk of species introduction to a high-Arctic archipelago
Aim: Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate will affect the vulnerabilityof marine ecosystems to the negative effects of non-indigenous species (NIS).In the Arctic, there is a need to better characterize present and future marinebiological introduction patterns and processes. We use a vecto...
| Published in: | Diversity and Distributions |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12117 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/89152 |
| Summary: | Aim: Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate will affect the vulnerabilityof marine ecosystems to the negative effects of non-indigenous species (NIS).In the Arctic, there is a need to better characterize present and future marinebiological introduction patterns and processes. We use a vector-based assessmentto estimate changes in the vulnerability of a high-Arctic archipelago tomarine NIS introduction and establishment. Location: Global, with a case study of Svalbard, Norway. Methods: We base our assessment on the level of connectedness to global NISpools through the regional shipping network and predicted changes in oceanclimates. Environmental match of ports connected to Svalbard was evaluatedunder present and future environmental conditions (2050 and 2100 predictedunder the RCP8.5 emissions scenario). Risk of NIS introduction was then estimatedbased on the potential for known NIS to be transported (in ballast wateror as biofouling), environmental match, and a qualitative estimate of propagulepressure. Results: We show that Svalbard will become increasingly vulnerable to marineNIS introduction and establishment. Over the coming century, sea surfacewarming at high latitudes is estimated to increase the level of environmentalmatch to nearly one-third of ports previously visited by vessels travelling toSvalbard in 2011 ( n = 136). The shipping network will then likely connect Svalbardto a much greater pool of known NIS, under conditions more favourablefor their establishment. Research and fishing vessels were estimated to pose thehighest risk of NIS introduction through biofouling, while ballast waterdischarge is estimated to pose an increased risk by the end of the century. Main conclusions: In the absence of focused preventative management, the riskof NIS introduction and establishment in Svalbard, and the wider Arctic, willincrease over coming decades, prompting a need to respond in policy andaction. |
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