Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica
Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanationsor paradigms of changethat att...
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:82592 2023-05-15T14:02:31+02:00 Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica Melbourne-Thomas, J Constable, A Wotherspoon, SJ Raymond, B 2013 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055093 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23405116 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/82592 en eng Public Library of Science http://ecite.utas.edu.au/82592/1/journal.pone.0055093.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055093 Melbourne-Thomas, J and Constable, A and Wotherspoon, SJ and Raymond, B, Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica, PLOS ONE, 8, (2) Article e55093. ISSN 1932-6203 (2013) [Refereed Article] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23405116 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/82592 Environmental Sciences Ecological Applications Ecological Impacts of Climate Change Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055093 2019-12-13T21:47:29Z Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanationsor paradigms of changethat attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earths most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula PLoS ONE 8 2 e55093 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental Sciences Ecological Applications Ecological Impacts of Climate Change |
spellingShingle |
Environmental Sciences Ecological Applications Ecological Impacts of Climate Change Melbourne-Thomas, J Constable, A Wotherspoon, SJ Raymond, B Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Environmental Sciences Ecological Applications Ecological Impacts of Climate Change |
description |
Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanationsor paradigms of changethat attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earths most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Melbourne-Thomas, J Constable, A Wotherspoon, SJ Raymond, B |
author_facet |
Melbourne-Thomas, J Constable, A Wotherspoon, SJ Raymond, B |
author_sort |
Melbourne-Thomas, J |
title |
Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica |
title_short |
Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica |
title_full |
Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica |
title_sort |
testing paradigms of ecosystem change under climate warming in antarctica |
publisher |
Public Library of Science |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055093 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23405116 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/82592 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/82592/1/journal.pone.0055093.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055093 Melbourne-Thomas, J and Constable, A and Wotherspoon, SJ and Raymond, B, Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica, PLOS ONE, 8, (2) Article e55093. ISSN 1932-6203 (2013) [Refereed Article] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23405116 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/82592 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055093 |
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PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
8 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
e55093 |
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