Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification
The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean's future uptake is essential to understand and adapt...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd.
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681 |
id |
ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:151681 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:151681 2023-05-15T18:25:45+02:00 Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification Mortenson, E Lenton, A Shadwick, EH Trull, TW Chamberlain, MA Zhang, X 2021 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681 en eng Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd. http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681/1/151681 - Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 Mortenson, E and Lenton, A and Shadwick, EH and Trull, TW and Chamberlain, MA and Zhang, X, Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification, Environmental Research Letters, 16, (12) Article 124063. ISSN 1748-9326 (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681 Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 2022-11-14T23:17:15Z The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean's future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO 2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a 'business as usual' CO 2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55 C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Pacific Southern Ocean Environmental Research Letters 16 12 124063 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes Mortenson, E Lenton, A Shadwick, EH Trull, TW Chamberlain, MA Zhang, X Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes |
description |
The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean's future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO 2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a 'business as usual' CO 2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55 C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mortenson, E Lenton, A Shadwick, EH Trull, TW Chamberlain, MA Zhang, X |
author_facet |
Mortenson, E Lenton, A Shadwick, EH Trull, TW Chamberlain, MA Zhang, X |
author_sort |
Mortenson, E |
title |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_short |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_full |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_fullStr |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
title_sort |
divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
publisher |
Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681 |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681/1/151681 - Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 Mortenson, E and Lenton, A and Shadwick, EH and Trull, TW and Chamberlain, MA and Zhang, X, Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification, Environmental Research Letters, 16, (12) Article 124063. ISSN 1748-9326 (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151681 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124063 |
_version_ |
1766207398992674816 |