Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change
The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and...
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Blackwell Publishing Inc
2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31663172 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:151519 2023-05-15T15:43:55+02:00 Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change Reum, JCP McDonald, PS Long, WC Holsman, KK Divine, L Armstrong, D Armstrong, J 2020 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31663172 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519 en eng Blackwell Publishing Inc http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519/1/151519 - Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 Reum, JCP and McDonald, PS and Long, WC and Holsman, KK and Divine, L and Armstrong, D and Armstrong, J, Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change, Conservation Biology, 34, (3) pp. 611-621. ISSN 0888-8892 (2020) [Refereed Article] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31663172 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519 Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Fisheries sciences Fisheries management Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 2022-09-19T22:16:50Z The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab ( Paralithodes platypus ) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab ( Paralithodes camtschaticus ). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea blue king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus Paralithodes platypus Red king crab eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Bering Sea Conservation Biology 34 3 611 621 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
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ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Fisheries sciences Fisheries management |
spellingShingle |
Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Fisheries sciences Fisheries management Reum, JCP McDonald, PS Long, WC Holsman, KK Divine, L Armstrong, D Armstrong, J Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
topic_facet |
Agricultural Veterinary and Food Sciences Fisheries sciences Fisheries management |
description |
The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab ( Paralithodes platypus ) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab ( Paralithodes camtschaticus ). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reum, JCP McDonald, PS Long, WC Holsman, KK Divine, L Armstrong, D Armstrong, J |
author_facet |
Reum, JCP McDonald, PS Long, WC Holsman, KK Divine, L Armstrong, D Armstrong, J |
author_sort |
Reum, JCP |
title |
Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
title_short |
Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
title_full |
Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
title_sort |
rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Inc |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31663172 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519 |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea blue king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus Paralithodes platypus Red king crab |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea blue king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus Paralithodes platypus Red king crab |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519/1/151519 - Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 Reum, JCP and McDonald, PS and Long, WC and Holsman, KK and Divine, L and Armstrong, D and Armstrong, J, Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change, Conservation Biology, 34, (3) pp. 611-621. ISSN 0888-8892 (2020) [Refereed Article] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31663172 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/151519 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13427 |
container_title |
Conservation Biology |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
611 |
op_container_end_page |
621 |
_version_ |
1766378135192862720 |