Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean
Aim Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative...
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:150831 2023-05-15T13:42:40+02:00 Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean Reisinger, RR Corney, S Raymond, B Lombard, AT Bester, MN Crawford, RJM Davies, D de Bruyn, PJN Dilley, BJ Kirkman, SP Makhado, AB Ryan, PG Schoombie, S Stevens, KL Tosh, CA Wege, M Whitehead, TO Sumner, MD Wotherspoon, S Friedlaender, AS Cotte, C Hindell, MA Ropert-Coudert, Y Pistorius, PA 2022 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831 en eng Blackwell Publishing Ltd http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831/1/150831 - Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 Reisinger, RR and Corney, S and Raymond, B and Lombard, AT and Bester, MN and Crawford, RJM and Davies, D and de Bruyn, PJN and Dilley, BJ and Kirkman, SP and Makhado, AB and Ryan, PG and Schoombie, S and Stevens, KL and Tosh, CA and Wege, M and Whitehead, TO and Sumner, MD and Wotherspoon, S and Friedlaender, AS and Cotte, C and Hindell, MA and Ropert-Coudert, Y and Pistorius, PA, Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean, Diversity and Distributions, 28, (1) pp. 142-159. ISSN 1366-9516 (2022) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831 Biological Sciences Ecology Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 2022-11-14T23:17:15Z Aim Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management. Location Southern Indian Ocean. Methods We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 20712100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co-occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts. Main conclusions Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian Ocean will be ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Prince Edward Islands Southern Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean Diversity and Distributions 28 1 142 159 |
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Open Polar |
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eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Biological Sciences Ecology Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) |
spellingShingle |
Biological Sciences Ecology Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) Reisinger, RR Corney, S Raymond, B Lombard, AT Bester, MN Crawford, RJM Davies, D de Bruyn, PJN Dilley, BJ Kirkman, SP Makhado, AB Ryan, PG Schoombie, S Stevens, KL Tosh, CA Wege, M Whitehead, TO Sumner, MD Wotherspoon, S Friedlaender, AS Cotte, C Hindell, MA Ropert-Coudert, Y Pistorius, PA Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
topic_facet |
Biological Sciences Ecology Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) |
description |
Aim Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management. Location Southern Indian Ocean. Methods We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 20712100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co-occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts. Main conclusions Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian Ocean will be ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reisinger, RR Corney, S Raymond, B Lombard, AT Bester, MN Crawford, RJM Davies, D de Bruyn, PJN Dilley, BJ Kirkman, SP Makhado, AB Ryan, PG Schoombie, S Stevens, KL Tosh, CA Wege, M Whitehead, TO Sumner, MD Wotherspoon, S Friedlaender, AS Cotte, C Hindell, MA Ropert-Coudert, Y Pistorius, PA |
author_facet |
Reisinger, RR Corney, S Raymond, B Lombard, AT Bester, MN Crawford, RJM Davies, D de Bruyn, PJN Dilley, BJ Kirkman, SP Makhado, AB Ryan, PG Schoombie, S Stevens, KL Tosh, CA Wege, M Whitehead, TO Sumner, MD Wotherspoon, S Friedlaender, AS Cotte, C Hindell, MA Ropert-Coudert, Y Pistorius, PA |
author_sort |
Reisinger, RR |
title |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_short |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_full |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean |
title_sort |
habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern indian ocean |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831 |
geographic |
Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Prince Edward Islands Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Prince Edward Islands Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831/1/150831 - Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 Reisinger, RR and Corney, S and Raymond, B and Lombard, AT and Bester, MN and Crawford, RJM and Davies, D and de Bruyn, PJN and Dilley, BJ and Kirkman, SP and Makhado, AB and Ryan, PG and Schoombie, S and Stevens, KL and Tosh, CA and Wege, M and Whitehead, TO and Sumner, MD and Wotherspoon, S and Friedlaender, AS and Cotte, C and Hindell, MA and Ropert-Coudert, Y and Pistorius, PA, Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean, Diversity and Distributions, 28, (1) pp. 142-159. ISSN 1366-9516 (2022) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/150831 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
28 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
142 |
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159 |
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1766171534317060096 |