Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater futu...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Amer Geophysical Union
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:146105 2023-05-15T13:42:40+02:00 Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe-Ouichi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay-Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton-Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Kuipers Munneke, P Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscombe, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Ruckamp, M Schlegel, N-J Seroussi, H Shepherd, A 2021 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105 en eng Amer Geophysical Union http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105/1/146105 - Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 Payne, AJ and Nowicki, S and Abe-Ouichi, A and Agosta, C and Alexander, P and Albrecht, T and Asay-Davis, X and Aschwanden, A and Barthel, A and Bracegirdle, TJ and Calov, R and Chambers, C and Choi, Y and Cullather, R and Cuzzone, J and Dumas, C and Edwards, TL and Felikson, D and Fettweis, X and Galton-Fenzi, BK and Goelzer, H and Gladstone, R and Golledge, NR and Gregory, JM and Greve, R and Hattermann, T and Hoffman, MJ and Humbert, A and Huybrechts, P and Jourdain, NC and Kleiner, T and Kuipers Munneke, P and Larour, E and Le clec'h, S and Lee, V and Leguy, G and Lipscombe, WH and Little, CM and Lowry, DP and Morlighem, M and Nias, I and Pattyn, F and Pelle, T and Price, SF and Quiquet, A and Reese, R and Ruckamp, M and Schlegel, N-J and Seroussi, H and Shepherd, A and Simon, E and Slater, D and Smith, RS and Straneo, F and Sun, S and Tarasov, L and Trusel, LD and Van Breedam, J and van de Wal, R and van den Broeke, M and Winkelmann, R and Zhao, C and Zhang, T and Zwinger, T, Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, (16) Article e2020GL091741. ISSN 0094-8276 (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105 Earth Sciences Other earth sciences Earth system sciences Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 2022-08-29T22:18:28Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Other earth sciences Earth system sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Other earth sciences Earth system sciences Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe-Ouichi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay-Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton-Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Kuipers Munneke, P Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscombe, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Ruckamp, M Schlegel, N-J Seroussi, H Shepherd, A Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Other earth sciences Earth system sciences |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe-Ouichi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay-Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton-Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Kuipers Munneke, P Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscombe, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Ruckamp, M Schlegel, N-J Seroussi, H Shepherd, A |
author_facet |
Payne, AJ Nowicki, S Abe-Ouichi, A Agosta, C Alexander, P Albrecht, T Asay-Davis, X Aschwanden, A Barthel, A Bracegirdle, TJ Calov, R Chambers, C Choi, Y Cullather, R Cuzzone, J Dumas, C Edwards, TL Felikson, D Fettweis, X Galton-Fenzi, BK Goelzer, H Gladstone, R Golledge, NR Gregory, JM Greve, R Hattermann, T Hoffman, MJ Humbert, A Huybrechts, P Jourdain, NC Kleiner, T Kuipers Munneke, P Larour, E Le clec'h, S Lee, V Leguy, G Lipscombe, WH Little, CM Lowry, DP Morlighem, M Nias, I Pattyn, F Pelle, T Price, SF Quiquet, A Reese, R Ruckamp, M Schlegel, N-J Seroussi, H Shepherd, A |
author_sort |
Payne, AJ |
title |
Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_short |
Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full |
Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publisher |
Amer Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105/1/146105 - Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 Payne, AJ and Nowicki, S and Abe-Ouichi, A and Agosta, C and Alexander, P and Albrecht, T and Asay-Davis, X and Aschwanden, A and Barthel, A and Bracegirdle, TJ and Calov, R and Chambers, C and Choi, Y and Cullather, R and Cuzzone, J and Dumas, C and Edwards, TL and Felikson, D and Fettweis, X and Galton-Fenzi, BK and Goelzer, H and Gladstone, R and Golledge, NR and Gregory, JM and Greve, R and Hattermann, T and Hoffman, MJ and Humbert, A and Huybrechts, P and Jourdain, NC and Kleiner, T and Kuipers Munneke, P and Larour, E and Le clec'h, S and Lee, V and Leguy, G and Lipscombe, WH and Little, CM and Lowry, DP and Morlighem, M and Nias, I and Pattyn, F and Pelle, T and Price, SF and Quiquet, A and Reese, R and Ruckamp, M and Schlegel, N-J and Seroussi, H and Shepherd, A and Simon, E and Slater, D and Smith, RS and Straneo, F and Sun, S and Tarasov, L and Trusel, LD and Van Breedam, J and van de Wal, R and van den Broeke, M and Winkelmann, R and Zhao, C and Zhang, T and Zwinger, T, Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, (16) Article e2020GL091741. ISSN 0094-8276 (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146105 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
16 |
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1766171248222535680 |