An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3
Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the output...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus GmbH
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031 |
id |
ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:146031 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:146031 2023-05-15T13:59:46+02:00 An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA 2021 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031 en eng Copernicus GmbH http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031/1/146031 - An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 Phipps, SJ and Roberts, JL and King, MA, An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3, Geoscientific Model Development, 14, (8) pp. 5107-5124. ISSN 1991-959X (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031 Earth Sciences Physical geography and environmental geoscience Glaciology Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 2021-09-06T22:17:41Z Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Antarctic The Antarctic Geoscientific Model Development 14 8 5107 5124 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Physical geography and environmental geoscience Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Physical geography and environmental geoscience Glaciology Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Physical geography and environmental geoscience Glaciology |
description |
Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA |
author_facet |
Phipps, SJ Roberts, JL King, MA |
author_sort |
Phipps, SJ |
title |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_short |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_full |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_fullStr |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_sort |
iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the parallel ice sheet model (pism) version 0.7.3 |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031/1/146031 - An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 Phipps, SJ and Roberts, JL and King, MA, An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3, Geoscientific Model Development, 14, (8) pp. 5107-5124. ISSN 1991-959X (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/146031 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
5107 |
op_container_end_page |
5124 |
_version_ |
1766268562989645824 |