CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections
Climate models exhibit a broad range in the simulated properties of the climate system. In the early historical period, the absolute global mean surface air temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models spans a range of ∼12C 15C. Other climate variables may be linked t...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:145089 2023-05-15T13:42:40+02:00 CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections Kajtar, JB Santoso, A Collins, M Taschetto, AS England, MH Frankcombe, LM 2021 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089 en eng John Wiley & Sons Ltd http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089/1/145089 - CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 Kajtar, JB and Santoso, A and Collins, M and Taschetto, AS and England, MH and Frankcombe, LM, CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections, Earth's Future, 9, (6) Article e2020EF001873. ISSN 2328-4277 (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089 Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 2022-08-29T22:18:25Z Climate models exhibit a broad range in the simulated properties of the climate system. In the early historical period, the absolute global mean surface air temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models spans a range of ∼12C 15C. Other climate variables may be linked to global mean temperature, and so accurate representation of the baseline climate state is crucial for meaningful future climate projections. In CMIP5 baseline climate states, statistically significant intermodel correlations between Southern Ocean surface temperature, outgoing shortwave radiation, cloudiness, the position of the mid-latitude eddy-driven jet, and Antarctic sea ice area are found. The baseline temperature relationships extend to projected future changes in the same set of variables, impacting on the projected global mean surface temperature change. Models with initially cooler Southern Ocean tend to exhibit more global warming, and vice versa for initially warmer models. These relationships arise due to a capacity for change. For example, cold-biased models tend to have more cloud cover, sea ice, and equatorward jet initially, and thus a greater capacity to lose cloud cover and sea ice, and for the jet to shift poleward under global warming. A first look at emerging data from CMIP6 reveals a shift of the relationship from the Southern Ocean towards the Antarctic region, possibly due to reductions in Southern Ocean biases, such as in westerly wind representation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Earth's Future 9 6 |
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Open Polar |
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eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
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ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes Kajtar, JB Santoso, A Collins, M Taschetto, AS England, MH Frankcombe, LM CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes |
description |
Climate models exhibit a broad range in the simulated properties of the climate system. In the early historical period, the absolute global mean surface air temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models spans a range of ∼12C 15C. Other climate variables may be linked to global mean temperature, and so accurate representation of the baseline climate state is crucial for meaningful future climate projections. In CMIP5 baseline climate states, statistically significant intermodel correlations between Southern Ocean surface temperature, outgoing shortwave radiation, cloudiness, the position of the mid-latitude eddy-driven jet, and Antarctic sea ice area are found. The baseline temperature relationships extend to projected future changes in the same set of variables, impacting on the projected global mean surface temperature change. Models with initially cooler Southern Ocean tend to exhibit more global warming, and vice versa for initially warmer models. These relationships arise due to a capacity for change. For example, cold-biased models tend to have more cloud cover, sea ice, and equatorward jet initially, and thus a greater capacity to lose cloud cover and sea ice, and for the jet to shift poleward under global warming. A first look at emerging data from CMIP6 reveals a shift of the relationship from the Southern Ocean towards the Antarctic region, possibly due to reductions in Southern Ocean biases, such as in westerly wind representation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kajtar, JB Santoso, A Collins, M Taschetto, AS England, MH Frankcombe, LM |
author_facet |
Kajtar, JB Santoso, A Collins, M Taschetto, AS England, MH Frankcombe, LM |
author_sort |
Kajtar, JB |
title |
CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections |
title_short |
CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections |
title_full |
CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections |
title_fullStr |
CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections |
title_sort |
cmip5 intermodel relationships in the baseline southern ocean climate system and with future projections |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089/1/145089 - CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 Kajtar, JB and Santoso, A and Collins, M and Taschetto, AS and England, MH and Frankcombe, LM, CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections, Earth's Future, 9, (6) Article e2020EF001873. ISSN 2328-4277 (2021) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/145089 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873 |
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Earth's Future |
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9 |
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6 |
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1766171238144671744 |