What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?
Sea levels of different atmosphereocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change b...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:143558 2023-05-15T14:59:51+02:00 What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? Couldrey, MP Gregory, JM Boeira Dias, FB Dobrohotoff, P Domingues, CM Garuba, O Griffies, SM Haak, H Hu, A Ishii, M Jungclaus, J Kohl, A Marsland, SJ Ojha, S Saenko, OA Savita, A Shao, A Stammer, D Suzuki, T Todd, A Zanna, L 2020 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558 en eng Springer-Verlag http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558/1/143558 - What causes the spread of model projections of ocean.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 Couldrey, MP and Gregory, JM and Boeira Dias, FB and Dobrohotoff, P and Domingues, CM and Garuba, O and Griffies, SM and Haak, H and Hu, A and Ishii, M and Jungclaus, J and Kohl, A and Marsland, SJ and Ojha, S and Saenko, OA and Savita, A and Shao, A and Stammer, D and Suzuki, T and Todd, A and Zanna, L, What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?, Climate Dynamics, 56, (1-2) pp. 155-187. ISSN 0930-7575 (2020) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558 Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 2022-08-30T09:11:43Z Sea levels of different atmosphereocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Southern Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Arctic Southern Ocean Climate Dynamics 56 1-2 155 187 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes Couldrey, MP Gregory, JM Boeira Dias, FB Dobrohotoff, P Domingues, CM Garuba, O Griffies, SM Haak, H Hu, A Ishii, M Jungclaus, J Kohl, A Marsland, SJ Ojha, S Saenko, OA Savita, A Shao, A Stammer, D Suzuki, T Todd, A Zanna, L What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Climate change science Climate change processes |
description |
Sea levels of different atmosphereocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Couldrey, MP Gregory, JM Boeira Dias, FB Dobrohotoff, P Domingues, CM Garuba, O Griffies, SM Haak, H Hu, A Ishii, M Jungclaus, J Kohl, A Marsland, SJ Ojha, S Saenko, OA Savita, A Shao, A Stammer, D Suzuki, T Todd, A Zanna, L |
author_facet |
Couldrey, MP Gregory, JM Boeira Dias, FB Dobrohotoff, P Domingues, CM Garuba, O Griffies, SM Haak, H Hu, A Ishii, M Jungclaus, J Kohl, A Marsland, SJ Ojha, S Saenko, OA Savita, A Shao, A Stammer, D Suzuki, T Todd, A Zanna, L |
author_sort |
Couldrey, MP |
title |
What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
title_short |
What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
title_full |
What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
title_fullStr |
What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
title_full_unstemmed |
What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
title_sort |
what causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing? |
publisher |
Springer-Verlag |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558 |
geographic |
Arctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558/1/143558 - What causes the spread of model projections of ocean.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 Couldrey, MP and Gregory, JM and Boeira Dias, FB and Dobrohotoff, P and Domingues, CM and Garuba, O and Griffies, SM and Haak, H and Hu, A and Ishii, M and Jungclaus, J and Kohl, A and Marsland, SJ and Ojha, S and Saenko, OA and Savita, A and Shao, A and Stammer, D and Suzuki, T and Todd, A and Zanna, L, What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?, Climate Dynamics, 56, (1-2) pp. 155-187. ISSN 0930-7575 (2020) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/143558 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05471-4 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
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56 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
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155 |
op_container_end_page |
187 |
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1766331974695256064 |