An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30301010 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/128064 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:128064 2023-05-15T14:25:57+02:00 An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F 2018 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30301010 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/128064 en eng Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 Arzaghi, E and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Binns, J and Khan, F, An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 135 pp. 1117-1127. ISSN 0025-326X (2018) [Refereed Article] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30301010 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/128064 Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Engineering Modelling Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 2019-12-13T22:26:20Z There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC 95% ) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC 5% ) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Arctic Arctic Ocean Marine Pollution Bulletin 135 1117 1127 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Engineering Modelling |
spellingShingle |
Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Engineering Modelling Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
topic_facet |
Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Engineering Modelling |
description |
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC 95% ) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC 5% ) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F |
author_facet |
Arzaghi, E Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Khan, F |
author_sort |
Arzaghi, E |
title |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_short |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_full |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_fullStr |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_full_unstemmed |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_sort |
ecological risk assessment model for arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
publisher |
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30301010 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/128064 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 Arzaghi, E and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Binns, J and Khan, F, An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 135 pp. 1117-1127. ISSN 0025-326X (2018) [Refereed Article] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30301010 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/128064 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 |
container_title |
Marine Pollution Bulletin |
container_volume |
135 |
container_start_page |
1117 |
op_container_end_page |
1127 |
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1766298437589925888 |