A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines
The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more...
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Inst Chemical Engineers
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/127294 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:127294 2023-05-15T14:57:52+02:00 A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines Arzaghi, E Abaei, MM Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Chin, C Khan, FI 2018 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/127294 en eng Inst Chemical Engineers http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 Arzaghi, E and Abaei, MM and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Binns, J and Chin, C and Khan, FI, A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 118 pp. 307-315. ISSN 0957-5820 (2018) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/127294 Engineering Maritime Engineering Ocean Engineering Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 2019-12-13T22:25:35Z The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more exploration activities will also increase the possibility of oil spill during the entire process including production and transport. A comprehensive risk assessment based on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) method is then required during the planning and operation stages of future Arctic oil production facilities. In the exposure analysis stage, ERA needs an evaluation of the oil concentration profile in all media. This paper presents a methodology for predicting the stochastic fate and transport of spilled oil in ice-infested regions. For this purpose, level IV fugacity models are used to estimate the time-variable concentration of oil. A hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) is adopted to estimate the probability of time to reach a concentration (TRTC) based on the observations made from a fugacity model. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a subsea pipeline accident resulting in the release of 100 t of Statfjord oil into the Labrador Sea is considered as the case study. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Labrador Sea eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Arctic Process Safety and Environmental Protection 118 307 315 |
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eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
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ftunivtasecite |
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English |
topic |
Engineering Maritime Engineering Ocean Engineering |
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Engineering Maritime Engineering Ocean Engineering Arzaghi, E Abaei, MM Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Chin, C Khan, FI A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
topic_facet |
Engineering Maritime Engineering Ocean Engineering |
description |
The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more exploration activities will also increase the possibility of oil spill during the entire process including production and transport. A comprehensive risk assessment based on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) method is then required during the planning and operation stages of future Arctic oil production facilities. In the exposure analysis stage, ERA needs an evaluation of the oil concentration profile in all media. This paper presents a methodology for predicting the stochastic fate and transport of spilled oil in ice-infested regions. For this purpose, level IV fugacity models are used to estimate the time-variable concentration of oil. A hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) is adopted to estimate the probability of time to reach a concentration (TRTC) based on the observations made from a fugacity model. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a subsea pipeline accident resulting in the release of 100 t of Statfjord oil into the Labrador Sea is considered as the case study. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arzaghi, E Abaei, MM Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Chin, C Khan, FI |
author_facet |
Arzaghi, E Abaei, MM Abbassi, R Garaniya, V Binns, J Chin, C Khan, FI |
author_sort |
Arzaghi, E |
title |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_short |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_full |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_fullStr |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_full_unstemmed |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_sort |
hierarchical bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
publisher |
Inst Chemical Engineers |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/127294 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Labrador Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic Labrador Sea |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 Arzaghi, E and Abaei, MM and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Binns, J and Chin, C and Khan, FI, A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 118 pp. 307-315. ISSN 0957-5820 (2018) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/127294 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 |
container_title |
Process Safety and Environmental Protection |
container_volume |
118 |
container_start_page |
307 |
op_container_end_page |
315 |
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1766329967993421824 |