The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations
Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:122412 2023-05-15T13:49:03+02:00 The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T 2017 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412 en eng M D P I AG http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412/1/slangen_et_al_2017 (3).pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 Slangen, ABA and van de Wal, RSW and Reerink, TJ and de Winter, RC and Hunter, JR and Woodworth, PL and Edwards, T, The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 5, (2) Article 21. ISSN 2077-1312 (2017) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412 Earth Sciences Oceanography Physical Oceanography Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 2019-12-13T22:21:18Z Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 10 4 at more than 5087% of the tide gauges. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Greenland Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5 2 21 |
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Open Polar |
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eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Physical Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Physical Oceanography Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Physical Oceanography |
description |
Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 10 4 at more than 5087% of the tide gauges. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T |
author_facet |
Slangen, ABA van de Wal, RSW Reerink, TJ de Winter, RC Hunter, JR Woodworth, PL Edwards, T |
author_sort |
Slangen, ABA |
title |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_short |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_full |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_fullStr |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
title_sort |
impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
publisher |
M D P I AG |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412/1/slangen_et_al_2017 (3).pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 Slangen, ABA and van de Wal, RSW and Reerink, TJ and de Winter, RC and Hunter, JR and Woodworth, PL and Edwards, T, The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 5, (2) Article 21. ISSN 2077-1312 (2017) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/122412 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
21 |
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1766250738561843200 |