An accident model for arctic shipping

• Published in: Volume 1: Offshore Technology; Offshore Geotechnics
• Main Authors: Smith, D, Veitch, B, Khan, FI, Taylor, R
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: American Society of Mechanical Engineers 2015
• Subjects: Engineering; Engineering practice and education; Risk engineering; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2015-41415; http://ecite.utas.edu.au/120689

This paper examines historical Arctic marine accidents from 1995-2004. It was seen during this time period that sinking and grounding of (fishing) vessels was the most common type of Arctic marine accident. A comprehensive accident model is presented to describe Arctic shipping accidents and their causation factors. The accident model is based on epidemiological concepts which explain how non-sequential factors result in an unwanted outcome, analogous to disease spreading through a human body. The causation factors are nonsequential and non-linearly dependent. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through examination of two past accidents: the Kolskaya and the Kulluk. Detailed description of how the accident model could be used for predictive accident modelling and risk analysis of Arctic shipping scenarios is also presented.