Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset
Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem-from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism gr...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:118719 2023-05-15T17:49:51+02:00 Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset Sasse, TP McNeil, BI Matear, RJ Lenton, A 2015 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719 en eng Copernicus GmbH http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719/1/Quantifying the influence of CO2.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 Sasse, TP and McNeil, BI and Matear, RJ and Lenton, A, Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset, Biogeosciences, 12, (20) pp. 6017-6031. ISSN 1726-4170 (2015) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719 Earth Sciences Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 2019-12-13T22:17:57Z Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem-from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO 2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Southern Ocean eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Southern Ocean Pacific Biogeosciences 12 20 6017 6031 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Chemical Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Chemical Oceanography Sasse, TP McNeil, BI Matear, RJ Lenton, A Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Oceanography Chemical Oceanography |
description |
Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem-from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO 2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sasse, TP McNeil, BI Matear, RJ Lenton, A |
author_facet |
Sasse, TP McNeil, BI Matear, RJ Lenton, A |
author_sort |
Sasse, TP |
title |
Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
title_short |
Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
title_full |
Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
title_sort |
quantifying the influence of co 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
genre |
Ocean acidification Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719/1/Quantifying the influence of CO2.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 Sasse, TP and McNeil, BI and Matear, RJ and Lenton, A, Quantifying the influence of CO 2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset, Biogeosciences, 12, (20) pp. 6017-6031. ISSN 1726-4170 (2015) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/118719 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015 |
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Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
6017 |
op_container_end_page |
6031 |
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1766156358179094528 |