Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate re...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/oi:10.1038/nclimate3103 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/111908 |
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ftunivtasecite:oai:ecite.utas.edu.au:111908 2023-05-15T13:49:03+02:00 Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate Jones, JM Gille, ST Goosse, H Abram, NJ Canziani, PO Charman, DJ Clem, KR Crosta, X de Lavergne, C Eisenman, I England, MH Fogt, RL Frankcombe, LM Marshall, GJ Masson-Delmotte, V Morrison, AK Orsi, AJ Raphael, MN Renwick, JA Schneider, DP Simpkins, GR Steig, EJ Stenni, B Swingedouw, D Vance, TR 2016 http://dx.doi.org/oi:10.1038/nclimate3103 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/111908 en eng Macmillan Publishers Limited http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 Jones, JM and Gille, ST and Goosse, H and Abram, NJ and Canziani, PO and Charman, DJ and Clem, KR and Crosta, X and de Lavergne, C and Eisenman, I and England, MH and Fogt, RL and Frankcombe, LM and Marshall, GJ and Masson-Delmotte, V and Morrison, AK and Orsi, AJ and Raphael, MN and Renwick, JA and Schneider, DP and Simpkins, GR and Steig, EJ and Stenni, B and Swingedouw, D and Vance, TR, Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate, Nature Climate Change, 6, (10) pp. 917-926. ISSN 1758-678X (2016) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/111908 Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change Processes Refereed Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivtasecite https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 2019-12-13T22:12:09Z Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) Antarctic Nature Climate Change 6 10 917 926 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
eCite UTAS (University of Tasmania) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtasecite |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change Processes Jones, JM Gille, ST Goosse, H Abram, NJ Canziani, PO Charman, DJ Clem, KR Crosta, X de Lavergne, C Eisenman, I England, MH Fogt, RL Frankcombe, LM Marshall, GJ Masson-Delmotte, V Morrison, AK Orsi, AJ Raphael, MN Renwick, JA Schneider, DP Simpkins, GR Steig, EJ Stenni, B Swingedouw, D Vance, TR Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change Processes |
description |
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jones, JM Gille, ST Goosse, H Abram, NJ Canziani, PO Charman, DJ Clem, KR Crosta, X de Lavergne, C Eisenman, I England, MH Fogt, RL Frankcombe, LM Marshall, GJ Masson-Delmotte, V Morrison, AK Orsi, AJ Raphael, MN Renwick, JA Schneider, DP Simpkins, GR Steig, EJ Stenni, B Swingedouw, D Vance, TR |
author_facet |
Jones, JM Gille, ST Goosse, H Abram, NJ Canziani, PO Charman, DJ Clem, KR Crosta, X de Lavergne, C Eisenman, I England, MH Fogt, RL Frankcombe, LM Marshall, GJ Masson-Delmotte, V Morrison, AK Orsi, AJ Raphael, MN Renwick, JA Schneider, DP Simpkins, GR Steig, EJ Stenni, B Swingedouw, D Vance, TR |
author_sort |
Jones, JM |
title |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_short |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_fullStr |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_sort |
assessing recent trends in high-latitude southern hemisphere surface climate |
publisher |
Macmillan Publishers Limited |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/oi:10.1038/nclimate3103 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 http://ecite.utas.edu.au/111908 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 Jones, JM and Gille, ST and Goosse, H and Abram, NJ and Canziani, PO and Charman, DJ and Clem, KR and Crosta, X and de Lavergne, C and Eisenman, I and England, MH and Fogt, RL and Frankcombe, LM and Marshall, GJ and Masson-Delmotte, V and Morrison, AK and Orsi, AJ and Raphael, MN and Renwick, JA and Schneider, DP and Simpkins, GR and Steig, EJ and Stenni, B and Swingedouw, D and Vance, TR, Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate, Nature Climate Change, 6, (10) pp. 917-926. ISSN 1758-678X (2016) [Refereed Article] http://ecite.utas.edu.au/111908 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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6 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
917 |
op_container_end_page |
926 |
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1766250676911865856 |