Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland
Globally, large carnivores have been heavily affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution, sometimes resulting in local extinctions. With increasing recognition of top-down trophic cascades and complex predator- prey dynamics, reintroductions are of growing interest for restoration of eco...
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ftunivstirling:oai:dspace.stir.ac.uk:1893/29181 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Stirling: Stirling Digital Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivstirling |
language |
English |
topic |
Dispersal Eurasian lynx Individual based model Large carnivores Reintroduction Animal Ecology Behavioural and Evolutionary Ecology Conservation Conservation Ecology Modelling |
spellingShingle |
Dispersal Eurasian lynx Individual based model Large carnivores Reintroduction Animal Ecology Behavioural and Evolutionary Ecology Conservation Conservation Ecology Modelling Ovenden, Thomas S Palmer, Stephen C F Travis, Justin M J Healey, John R Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland |
topic_facet |
Dispersal Eurasian lynx Individual based model Large carnivores Reintroduction Animal Ecology Behavioural and Evolutionary Ecology Conservation Conservation Ecology Modelling |
description |
Globally, large carnivores have been heavily affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution, sometimes resulting in local extinctions. With increasing recognition of top-down trophic cascades and complex predator- prey dynamics, reintroductions are of growing interest for restoration of ecosystem functioning. Many re- introductions have however failed, in part due to poor planning and inability to model complex eco-evolutionary processes to give reliable predictions. Using the case study of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a large predator being considered for reintroduction to Scotland, we demonstrate how an individual-based model that integrates demography with three distinct phases of dispersal (emigration, transfer and settlement) can be used to explore the relative suitability of three geographically-distant potential reintroduction sites, multi-site reintroductions and two founding population sizes. For a single-site reintroduction of 10 lynx, our simulation results show a clear hierarchy of suitability across all metrics. Reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula (west coast) consistently performed best, with a probability of population persistence at year 100 of 83%, and the Scottish component of Kielder Forest (southern Scotland) worst, with only a 21% chance of population persistence to year 100. Simultaneous two-site reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula and in Aberdeenshire (near the east coast) of 32 lynx gave a 96% persistence at 100 years. Our model was highly sensitive to survival, particularly of adults, highlighting this parameter's importance for reintroduction success. The results strongly indicate the potential viability of Eurasian lynx reintroduction to Scotland given the current cover of suitable woodland habitat. More generally, our work demonstrates how emerging modelling approaches incorporating increased realism in re- presenting species' demography, ecology and dispersal can have high value for quick, inexpensive assessment of likely reintroduction success and for selection ... |
author2 |
University of Aberdeen Bangor University orcid:0000-0002-6957-1333 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ovenden, Thomas S Palmer, Stephen C F Travis, Justin M J Healey, John R |
author_facet |
Ovenden, Thomas S Palmer, Stephen C F Travis, Justin M J Healey, John R |
author_sort |
Ovenden, Thomas S |
title |
Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland |
title_short |
Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland |
title_full |
Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland |
title_fullStr |
Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland |
title_sort |
improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: how to reintroduce eurasian lynx (lynx lynx) to scotland |
publisher |
Elsevier BV |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1893/29181 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/1/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/3/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/4/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf |
genre |
Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
genre_facet |
Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
op_relation |
Ovenden TS, Palmer SCF, Travis JMJ & Healey JR (2019) Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland. Biological Conservation, 234, pp. 140-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 http://hdl.handle.net/1893/29181 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 WOS:000468718500017 2-s2.0-85063474866 1258339 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/1/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/3/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/4/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf |
op_rights |
This item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. Accepted refereed manuscript of: Ovenden TS, Palmer SCF, Travis JMJ & Healey JR (2019) Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland. Biological Conservation, 234, pp. 140-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 © 2019, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 2020-03-29 [Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling- how to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 12 months after formal publication. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 |
container_title |
Biological Conservation |
container_volume |
234 |
container_start_page |
140 |
op_container_end_page |
153 |
_version_ |
1766244132659920896 |
spelling |
ftunivstirling:oai:dspace.stir.ac.uk:1893/29181 2023-05-15T18:50:25+02:00 Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland Ovenden, Thomas S Palmer, Stephen C F Travis, Justin M J Healey, John R University of Aberdeen Bangor University orcid:0000-0002-6957-1333 2019-06 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1893/29181 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/1/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/3/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/4/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf en eng Elsevier BV Ovenden TS, Palmer SCF, Travis JMJ & Healey JR (2019) Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland. Biological Conservation, 234, pp. 140-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 http://hdl.handle.net/1893/29181 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 WOS:000468718500017 2-s2.0-85063474866 1258339 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/1/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/3/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/29181/4/Improving%20reintroduction%20success%20in%20large%20carnivores%20through%20individual-based%20modelling-%20how%20to%20reintroduce%20Eurasian%20lynx%20%28Lynx%20lynx%29%20to%20Scotland.pdf This item has been embargoed for a period. During the embargo please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. Accepted refereed manuscript of: Ovenden TS, Palmer SCF, Travis JMJ & Healey JR (2019) Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland. Biological Conservation, 234, pp. 140-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 © 2019, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 2020-03-29 [Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling- how to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland.pdf] Publisher requires embargo of 12 months after formal publication. CC-BY-NC-ND Dispersal Eurasian lynx Individual based model Large carnivores Reintroduction Animal Ecology Behavioural and Evolutionary Ecology Conservation Conservation Ecology Modelling Journal Article AM - Accepted Manuscript 2019 ftunivstirling https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.035 2022-06-13T18:42:34Z Globally, large carnivores have been heavily affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution, sometimes resulting in local extinctions. With increasing recognition of top-down trophic cascades and complex predator- prey dynamics, reintroductions are of growing interest for restoration of ecosystem functioning. Many re- introductions have however failed, in part due to poor planning and inability to model complex eco-evolutionary processes to give reliable predictions. Using the case study of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a large predator being considered for reintroduction to Scotland, we demonstrate how an individual-based model that integrates demography with three distinct phases of dispersal (emigration, transfer and settlement) can be used to explore the relative suitability of three geographically-distant potential reintroduction sites, multi-site reintroductions and two founding population sizes. For a single-site reintroduction of 10 lynx, our simulation results show a clear hierarchy of suitability across all metrics. Reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula (west coast) consistently performed best, with a probability of population persistence at year 100 of 83%, and the Scottish component of Kielder Forest (southern Scotland) worst, with only a 21% chance of population persistence to year 100. Simultaneous two-site reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula and in Aberdeenshire (near the east coast) of 32 lynx gave a 96% persistence at 100 years. Our model was highly sensitive to survival, particularly of adults, highlighting this parameter's importance for reintroduction success. The results strongly indicate the potential viability of Eurasian lynx reintroduction to Scotland given the current cover of suitable woodland habitat. More generally, our work demonstrates how emerging modelling approaches incorporating increased realism in re- presenting species' demography, ecology and dispersal can have high value for quick, inexpensive assessment of likely reintroduction success and for selection ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Lynx Lynx lynx lynx University of Stirling: Stirling Digital Research Repository Biological Conservation 234 140 153 |