Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)
Aquaculture faces many threats, including diseases, of which some are notifiable under current UK regulation, e.g. infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Abnormal mortality is one possible indicator of the presence of infectious disease on a site that may be us...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1893/20016 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/20016/1/Aquaculture%202012.pdf |
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ftunivstirling:oai:dspace.stir.ac.uk:1893/20016 2023-05-15T15:32:01+02:00 Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) Soares, Silvia Murray, Alexander G Crumlish, Margaret Turnbull, James Green, Darren University of Stirling Scottish Government - Enterprise, Environment & Digital - Marine Scotland Complex Systems - LEGACY Institute of Aquaculture orcid:0000-0002-7810-8172 orcid:0000-0003-0741-9747 orcid:0000-0001-9026-5675 2012-12-11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1893/20016 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/20016/1/Aquaculture%202012.pdf en eng Elsevier Soares S, Murray AG, Crumlish M, Turnbull J & Green D (2012) Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Aquaculture, 370-371, pp. 136-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 http://hdl.handle.net/1893/20016 doi:10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 WOS:000311215700019 2-s2.0-84868248264 632889 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/20016/1/Aquaculture%202012.pdf The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved 2999-12-12 [Aquaculture 2012.pdf] The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository therefore there is an embargo on the full text of the work. Fish health Mortality ROC Salmon aquaculture Journal Article VoR - Version of Record 2012 ftunivstirling https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 2022-06-13T18:44:00Z Aquaculture faces many threats, including diseases, of which some are notifiable under current UK regulation, e.g. infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Abnormal mortality is one possible indicator of the presence of infectious disease on a site that may be used, by the regulator, as a surveillance alert that allows them to identify possible notifiable diseases and to activate measures of control to reduce the risk of spreading those diseases. Therefore, mortality records at the farm level may be a useful indicator for regulatory surveillance purposes in order to identify potential disease outbreaks. In the UK, regulators and producers have discussed abnormal rates of mortality that may be considered as a trigger to notify the official regulator. In our study, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approach was used on mortality data from production cycles of a site production database of marine Atlantic salmon belonging to a single company. The usefulness of these data in helping the detection of infectious diseases was determined using measures of sensitivity and specificity. For fish under 750 g, the abnormal rates of mortality did not provide a strong indication of the presence of disease. The area under the curve (0 ≤ AUC ≤ 1) values were generally low with the exception of cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) that showed AUC = 0.77 for weekly mortality and AUC = 0.73 for five-week rolling mortality. However, abnormal levels of mortality for fish with weight over 750 g provided a strong indication of the presence of disease with the exception of both suspected and confirmed IPN. The probabilities of triggering official notification were low since mortality events over the percentages proposed happened infrequently. The most efficient trigger will be for weekly mortality (1%) for fish with weight over 750 g since abnormal mortalities in such large fish are more likely to be associated with the presence of disease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon University of Stirling: Stirling Digital Research Repository Aquaculture 370-371 136 143 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Stirling: Stirling Digital Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivstirling |
language |
English |
topic |
Fish health Mortality ROC Salmon aquaculture |
spellingShingle |
Fish health Mortality ROC Salmon aquaculture Soares, Silvia Murray, Alexander G Crumlish, Margaret Turnbull, James Green, Darren Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) |
topic_facet |
Fish health Mortality ROC Salmon aquaculture |
description |
Aquaculture faces many threats, including diseases, of which some are notifiable under current UK regulation, e.g. infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Abnormal mortality is one possible indicator of the presence of infectious disease on a site that may be used, by the regulator, as a surveillance alert that allows them to identify possible notifiable diseases and to activate measures of control to reduce the risk of spreading those diseases. Therefore, mortality records at the farm level may be a useful indicator for regulatory surveillance purposes in order to identify potential disease outbreaks. In the UK, regulators and producers have discussed abnormal rates of mortality that may be considered as a trigger to notify the official regulator. In our study, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approach was used on mortality data from production cycles of a site production database of marine Atlantic salmon belonging to a single company. The usefulness of these data in helping the detection of infectious diseases was determined using measures of sensitivity and specificity. For fish under 750 g, the abnormal rates of mortality did not provide a strong indication of the presence of disease. The area under the curve (0 ≤ AUC ≤ 1) values were generally low with the exception of cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) that showed AUC = 0.77 for weekly mortality and AUC = 0.73 for five-week rolling mortality. However, abnormal levels of mortality for fish with weight over 750 g provided a strong indication of the presence of disease with the exception of both suspected and confirmed IPN. The probabilities of triggering official notification were low since mortality events over the percentages proposed happened infrequently. The most efficient trigger will be for weekly mortality (1%) for fish with weight over 750 g since abnormal mortalities in such large fish are more likely to be associated with the presence of disease. |
author2 |
University of Stirling Scottish Government - Enterprise, Environment & Digital - Marine Scotland Complex Systems - LEGACY Institute of Aquaculture orcid:0000-0002-7810-8172 orcid:0000-0003-0741-9747 orcid:0000-0001-9026-5675 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Soares, Silvia Murray, Alexander G Crumlish, Margaret Turnbull, James Green, Darren |
author_facet |
Soares, Silvia Murray, Alexander G Crumlish, Margaret Turnbull, James Green, Darren |
author_sort |
Soares, Silvia |
title |
Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) |
title_short |
Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) |
title_full |
Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) |
title_sort |
evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (roc) |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1893/20016 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/20016/1/Aquaculture%202012.pdf |
genre |
Atlantic salmon |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon |
op_relation |
Soares S, Murray AG, Crumlish M, Turnbull J & Green D (2012) Evaluating abnormal mortality as an indicator of disease presence in the Atlantic salmon industry using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Aquaculture, 370-371, pp. 136-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 http://hdl.handle.net/1893/20016 doi:10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 WOS:000311215700019 2-s2.0-84868248264 632889 http://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/20016/1/Aquaculture%202012.pdf |
op_rights |
The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository. Please use the Request a Copy feature at the foot of the Repository record to request a copy directly from the author. You can only request a copy if you wish to use this work for your own research or private study. http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved 2999-12-12 [Aquaculture 2012.pdf] The publisher does not allow this work to be made publicly available in this Repository therefore there is an embargo on the full text of the work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2012.10.004 |
container_title |
Aquaculture |
container_volume |
370-371 |
container_start_page |
136 |
op_container_end_page |
143 |
_version_ |
1766362516786511872 |