Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity
This paper presents a review of the development of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models (STCFM) for the western north Atlantic, Australian and western north Pacific Ocean basins. Current hypotheses on the climatic controls affecting the interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity are d...
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ftunivsthongkong:oai:repository.ust.hk:1783.1-93781 2023-05-15T17:26:45+02:00 Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity Cheung, Norman Kin Wai Kyle, William John 2000 http://repository.ust.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-93781 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=00049743&rft.volume=49&rft.issue=3&rft.date=2000&rft.spage=201&rft.aulast=Cheung&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Trends%20in%20seasonal%20forecasting%20of%20tropical%20cyclone%20activity&rft.title=Australian%20Meteorological%20Magazine http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-0034258315&origin=inward English eng http://repository.ust.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-93781 Australian Meteorological Magazine, v. 49, (3), September 2000, p. 201-221 0004-9743 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=00049743&rft.volume=49&rft.issue=3&rft.date=2000&rft.spage=201&rft.aulast=Cheung&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Trends%20in%20seasonal%20forecasting%20of%20tropical%20cyclone%20activity&rft.title=Australian%20Meteorological%20Magazine http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-0034258315&origin=inward Article 2000 ftunivsthongkong 2021-04-30T00:02:07Z This paper presents a review of the development of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models (STCFM) for the western north Atlantic, Australian and western north Pacific Ocean basins. Current hypotheses on the climatic controls affecting the interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity are described. Although doubt remains concerning the correlation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the yearly frequency of tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific, much of the interannual variability of cyclone activity in the western north Atlantic and Australian basins can be explained by ENSO and related phenomena. An association between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and hurricane activity has also been well established for the western north Atlantic, but not for the Australian and western north Pacific basins. A rigorous evaluation of seasonal hurricane forecasts in the western north Atlantic is described. It is proposed that future research focus on: (a) more appropriate statistical methodologies, and (b) the physical relationships between tropical cyclone activity and possible new seasonal predictors. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository Pacific |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsthongkong |
language |
English |
description |
This paper presents a review of the development of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models (STCFM) for the western north Atlantic, Australian and western north Pacific Ocean basins. Current hypotheses on the climatic controls affecting the interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity are described. Although doubt remains concerning the correlation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the yearly frequency of tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific, much of the interannual variability of cyclone activity in the western north Atlantic and Australian basins can be explained by ENSO and related phenomena. An association between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and hurricane activity has also been well established for the western north Atlantic, but not for the Australian and western north Pacific basins. A rigorous evaluation of seasonal hurricane forecasts in the western north Atlantic is described. It is proposed that future research focus on: (a) more appropriate statistical methodologies, and (b) the physical relationships between tropical cyclone activity and possible new seasonal predictors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cheung, Norman Kin Wai Kyle, William John |
spellingShingle |
Cheung, Norman Kin Wai Kyle, William John Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
author_facet |
Cheung, Norman Kin Wai Kyle, William John |
author_sort |
Cheung, Norman Kin Wai |
title |
Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
title_short |
Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
title_full |
Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
title_fullStr |
Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
title_sort |
trends in seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity |
publishDate |
2000 |
url |
http://repository.ust.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-93781 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=00049743&rft.volume=49&rft.issue=3&rft.date=2000&rft.spage=201&rft.aulast=Cheung&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Trends%20in%20seasonal%20forecasting%20of%20tropical%20cyclone%20activity&rft.title=Australian%20Meteorological%20Magazine http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-0034258315&origin=inward |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://repository.ust.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-93781 Australian Meteorological Magazine, v. 49, (3), September 2000, p. 201-221 0004-9743 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=00049743&rft.volume=49&rft.issue=3&rft.date=2000&rft.spage=201&rft.aulast=Cheung&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Trends%20in%20seasonal%20forecasting%20of%20tropical%20cyclone%20activity&rft.title=Australian%20Meteorological%20Magazine http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-0034258315&origin=inward |
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