Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan
This study comprehensively evaluates monsoon variability and its large-scale drivers in Pakistan, a country often affected by extreme monsoon events leading to destructive flooding. Utilizing the Monotonic Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope test, we analyzed trends in seven indicators of extreme prec...
id |
ftunivsthongkong:oai:repository.hkust.edu.hk:1783.1-140544 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsthongkong |
language |
English |
topic |
Atlantic and Pacific variability Climate change Global teleconnections Integrated indices Monsoon extremes Wavelet analysis |
spellingShingle |
Atlantic and Pacific variability Climate change Global teleconnections Integrated indices Monsoon extremes Wavelet analysis Hussain, Azfar Hussain, Ishtiaq Rezaei, Abolfazl Ullah, Waheed Lu, Mengqian Zhou, Jinxing Guan, Yinghui Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan |
topic_facet |
Atlantic and Pacific variability Climate change Global teleconnections Integrated indices Monsoon extremes Wavelet analysis |
description |
This study comprehensively evaluates monsoon variability and its large-scale drivers in Pakistan, a country often affected by extreme monsoon events leading to destructive flooding. Utilizing the Monotonic Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope test, we analyzed trends in seven indicators of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) from 1961 to 2017 across Pakistan and its homogeneous climatic regions. The wavelet coherence method further allowed us to probe the connection between EPEs and key climate indices such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the time-frequency domain. Our findings indicate a significant increase in all EPEs across Pakistan, particularly in the monsoon region (R-II) from 1961 to 2017, with a noticeable decline post-1980s. The findings revealed a significant increase in EPEs in the whole country from 1961 to 1989 to 1990–2017, with a dominant change in the monsoon region during 1990–2017. In terms of climate indices combinations, IOD + ISM showed the highest coherences (>0.65), while ENSO+IOD + ISM and ENSO+IOD + PDO displayed coherences >0.81 and > 0.79, respectively, across the entire country. The multi-linear regression (MLR) model analysis drivers indicate that IOD and ENSO are the leading drivers of changes in monsoon EPEs in the whole country, whereas the core monsoon region of Pakistan also showed a strong influence from AMO and NAO in tandem with ENSO and IOD. The overall increase in EPEs over Pakistan are mainly associated with the indices from the Pacific Ocean, especially IOD, ENSO and PDO and with their various combinations. Our study reveals the variations in EPEs across Pakistan, yielding insights that could inform water resource management strategies and disaster prevention measures. © 2024 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hussain, Azfar Hussain, Ishtiaq Rezaei, Abolfazl Ullah, Waheed Lu, Mengqian Zhou, Jinxing Guan, Yinghui |
author_facet |
Hussain, Azfar Hussain, Ishtiaq Rezaei, Abolfazl Ullah, Waheed Lu, Mengqian Zhou, Jinxing Guan, Yinghui |
author_sort |
Hussain, Azfar |
title |
Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan |
title_short |
Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan |
title_full |
Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan |
title_fullStr |
Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan |
title_sort |
increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in pakistan |
publisher |
Elsevier Ltd |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-140544 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0169-8095&rft.volume=&rft.issue=&rft.date=2024&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hussain&rft.aufirst=Azfar&rft.atitle=Increasing+monsoon+precipitation+extremes+in+relation+to+large-scale+climatic+patterns+in+Pakistan&rft.title=Atmospheric+Research http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85199400151&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=001281928200001 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Indian Kendall Pacific Soi |
geographic_facet |
Indian Kendall Pacific Soi |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-140544 Atmospheric Research, v. 309, October 2024, article number 107592 0169-8095 1873-2895 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0169-8095&rft.volume=&rft.issue=&rft.date=2024&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hussain&rft.aufirst=Azfar&rft.atitle=Increasing+monsoon+precipitation+extremes+in+relation+to+large-scale+climatic+patterns+in+Pakistan&rft.title=Atmospheric+Research http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85199400151&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=001281928200001 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Research |
container_volume |
309 |
container_start_page |
107592 |
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1811642377211740160 |
spelling |
ftunivsthongkong:oai:repository.hkust.edu.hk:1783.1-140544 2024-09-30T14:39:47+00:00 Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan Hussain, Azfar Hussain, Ishtiaq Rezaei, Abolfazl Ullah, Waheed Lu, Mengqian Zhou, Jinxing Guan, Yinghui 2024 http://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-140544 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0169-8095&rft.volume=&rft.issue=&rft.date=2024&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hussain&rft.aufirst=Azfar&rft.atitle=Increasing+monsoon+precipitation+extremes+in+relation+to+large-scale+climatic+patterns+in+Pakistan&rft.title=Atmospheric+Research http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85199400151&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=001281928200001 English eng Elsevier Ltd http://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-140544 Atmospheric Research, v. 309, October 2024, article number 107592 0169-8095 1873-2895 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0169-8095&rft.volume=&rft.issue=&rft.date=2024&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hussain&rft.aufirst=Azfar&rft.atitle=Increasing+monsoon+precipitation+extremes+in+relation+to+large-scale+climatic+patterns+in+Pakistan&rft.title=Atmospheric+Research http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85199400151&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=001281928200001 Atlantic and Pacific variability Climate change Global teleconnections Integrated indices Monsoon extremes Wavelet analysis Article 2024 ftunivsthongkong https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592 2024-09-18T00:04:39Z This study comprehensively evaluates monsoon variability and its large-scale drivers in Pakistan, a country often affected by extreme monsoon events leading to destructive flooding. Utilizing the Monotonic Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope test, we analyzed trends in seven indicators of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) from 1961 to 2017 across Pakistan and its homogeneous climatic regions. The wavelet coherence method further allowed us to probe the connection between EPEs and key climate indices such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the time-frequency domain. Our findings indicate a significant increase in all EPEs across Pakistan, particularly in the monsoon region (R-II) from 1961 to 2017, with a noticeable decline post-1980s. The findings revealed a significant increase in EPEs in the whole country from 1961 to 1989 to 1990–2017, with a dominant change in the monsoon region during 1990–2017. In terms of climate indices combinations, IOD + ISM showed the highest coherences (>0.65), while ENSO+IOD + ISM and ENSO+IOD + PDO displayed coherences >0.81 and > 0.79, respectively, across the entire country. The multi-linear regression (MLR) model analysis drivers indicate that IOD and ENSO are the leading drivers of changes in monsoon EPEs in the whole country, whereas the core monsoon region of Pakistan also showed a strong influence from AMO and NAO in tandem with ENSO and IOD. The overall increase in EPEs over Pakistan are mainly associated with the indices from the Pacific Ocean, especially IOD, ENSO and PDO and with their various combinations. Our study reveals the variations in EPEs across Pakistan, yielding insights that could inform water resource management strategies and disaster prevention measures. © 2024 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository Indian Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Pacific Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Atmospheric Research 309 107592 |