Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans
Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate pre...
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ftunivsthongkong:oai:repository.hkust.edu.hk:1783.1-120346 2023-05-15T18:18:37+02:00 Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans Brown, Patrick T. Li, Wenhong Jiang, Jonathan H. Su, Hui 2016 https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120346 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071442 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0094-8276&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=24&rft.date=2016&rft.spage=12,543&rft.aulast=Brown&rft.aufirst=P.T.&rft.atitle=Spread+in+the+magnitude+of+climate+model+interdecadal+global+temperature+variability+traced+to+disagreements+over+high-latitude+oceans&rft.title=Geophysical+Research+Letters http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85007306699&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000392741900029 English eng Blackwell Publishing Ltd https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120346 Geophysical Research Letters, v. 43, (24), December 2016, p. 12543-12549 0094-8276 1944-8007 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071442 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0094-8276&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=24&rft.date=2016&rft.spage=12,543&rft.aulast=Brown&rft.aufirst=P.T.&rft.atitle=Spread+in+the+magnitude+of+climate+model+interdecadal+global+temperature+variability+traced+to+disagreements+over+high-latitude+oceans&rft.title=Geophysical+Research+Letters http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85007306699&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000392741900029 Air-sea interaction Climate models Decadal variability Global mean temperature Internal variability Unforced variability Article 2016 ftunivsthongkong https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071442 2022-09-30T00:07:58Z Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository Pacific Geophysical Research Letters 43 24 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsthongkong |
language |
English |
topic |
Air-sea interaction Climate models Decadal variability Global mean temperature Internal variability Unforced variability |
spellingShingle |
Air-sea interaction Climate models Decadal variability Global mean temperature Internal variability Unforced variability Brown, Patrick T. Li, Wenhong Jiang, Jonathan H. Su, Hui Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
topic_facet |
Air-sea interaction Climate models Decadal variability Global mean temperature Internal variability Unforced variability |
description |
Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brown, Patrick T. Li, Wenhong Jiang, Jonathan H. Su, Hui |
author_facet |
Brown, Patrick T. Li, Wenhong Jiang, Jonathan H. Su, Hui |
author_sort |
Brown, Patrick T. |
title |
Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
title_short |
Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
title_full |
Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
title_fullStr |
Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
title_sort |
spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120346 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071442 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0094-8276&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=24&rft.date=2016&rft.spage=12,543&rft.aulast=Brown&rft.aufirst=P.T.&rft.atitle=Spread+in+the+magnitude+of+climate+model+interdecadal+global+temperature+variability+traced+to+disagreements+over+high-latitude+oceans&rft.title=Geophysical+Research+Letters http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85007306699&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000392741900029 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120346 Geophysical Research Letters, v. 43, (24), December 2016, p. 12543-12549 0094-8276 1944-8007 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071442 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0094-8276&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=24&rft.date=2016&rft.spage=12,543&rft.aulast=Brown&rft.aufirst=P.T.&rft.atitle=Spread+in+the+magnitude+of+climate+model+interdecadal+global+temperature+variability+traced+to+disagreements+over+high-latitude+oceans&rft.title=Geophysical+Research+Letters http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85007306699&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000392741900029 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071442 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
24 |
_version_ |
1766195244388319232 |