Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming
With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable...
id |
ftunivsthongkong:oai:repository.hkust.edu.hk:1783.1-120288 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivsthongkong:oai:repository.hkust.edu.hk:1783.1-120288 2023-05-15T14:27:46+02:00 Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. 2019 https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120288 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=2045-2322&rft.volume=9&rft.issue=1&rft.date=2019&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hwang&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Interpretation+of+the+Top-of-Atmosphere+Energy+Flux+for+Future+Arctic+Warming&rft.title=Scientific+Reports http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85072012310&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000484988100033 English eng Nature Publishing Group https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120288 Scientific Reports, v. 9, (1), September 2019, article number 13059 2045-2322 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=2045-2322&rft.volume=9&rft.issue=1&rft.date=2019&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hwang&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Interpretation+of+the+Top-of-Atmosphere+Energy+Flux+for+Future+Arctic+Warming&rft.title=Scientific+Reports http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85072012310&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000484988100033 Article 2019 ftunivsthongkong https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 2022-09-30T00:07:53Z With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m−2 K−1 as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming. © 2019, The Author(s). Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository Arctic Scientific Reports 9 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: HKUST Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsthongkong |
language |
English |
description |
With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA’s CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m−2 K−1 as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming. © 2019, The Author(s). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. |
spellingShingle |
Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
author_facet |
Hwang, Jiwon Choi, Yong-Sang Yoo, Changhyun Wang, Yuan Su, Hui Jiang, Jonathan H. |
author_sort |
Hwang, Jiwon |
title |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_short |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_full |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_fullStr |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming |
title_sort |
interpretation of the top-of-atmosphere energy flux for future arctic warming |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120288 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=2045-2322&rft.volume=9&rft.issue=1&rft.date=2019&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hwang&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Interpretation+of+the+Top-of-Atmosphere+Energy+Flux+for+Future+Arctic+Warming&rft.title=Scientific+Reports http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85072012310&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000484988100033 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
https://repository.hkust.edu.hk/ir/Record/1783.1-120288 Scientific Reports, v. 9, (1), September 2019, article number 13059 2045-2322 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 http://lbdiscover.ust.hk/uresolver?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rfr_id=info:sid/HKUST:SPI&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=2045-2322&rft.volume=9&rft.issue=1&rft.date=2019&rft.spage=&rft.aulast=Hwang&rft.aufirst=&rft.atitle=Interpretation+of+the+Top-of-Atmosphere+Energy+Flux+for+Future+Arctic+Warming&rft.title=Scientific+Reports http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-85072012310&origin=inward http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000484988100033 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49218-6 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766301670409502720 |