Probabilistic blowout risk in former disputed area southeast in the Norwegian part of the Barents Sea.

• Main Author: Johnsen, Silje
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: University of Stavanger, Norway 2012
• Subjects: utblåsning; miljørisikoanalyse; usikkerhet; teknisk miljøvern; offshore; VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400; Barents Sea; Norway
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/182531

Master's thesis in Environmental Technology, Offshore Specialization The maritime delimitation in the former disputed area between Norway and Russia was agreed upon in 2011. It is therefore probable that the area will be opened for petroleum exploration in the near future. A blowout represents one of the most severe threats associated with petroleum exploration. This thesis has investigated the risk involved with such an activity through a case study, by considering geology and well specific conditions for this area. Currently, no wells have been drilled in the nearby area. Therefore, there is a lot of uncertainty related to reservoir and well conditions. The blowout risk was determined in a well specific manner by employing several computer modeling tools. Determination of blowout probability, flow rate and duration was emphasized. This thesis also assessed the associated environmental risk through a methodological study. The main objective of this thesis was to investigate how available computer modeling tools allowed the uncertainty to propagate throughout an environmental risk assessment. This is done by observing how the applied tools could communicate probabilistic elements. The blowout probability was determined through two different approaches. Both methods applied statistics as basis. A pure statistical approach attempted to reduce the historical blowout probability by considering recent trends in kick statistics. The computer modeling tool BlowFAM adjusted the historical probability by considering reservoir and well characteristics, and through an evaluation of a wide range of risk elements. The latter was also used to identify certain risk reducing measures. BlowFAM was considered to yield the most well specific result of the two approaches, and was therefore chosen as the most appropriate model for this case study. BlowFAM has yielded a blowout probability of 7.58 × 10-5. BlowFlow is a computer modeling tool used to determine flow rate and duration of a potential blowout in a probabilistic manner. ...