The influence of atmospheric forcing on the interannual variability of the Adriatic mean sea level

• Main Author: Pupić Vurilj, Mia
• Other Authors: Šepić, Jadranka
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Sveučilište u Splitu. Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet. Odjel za fiziku. 2022
• Subjects: Sea level; Adriatic; sea-level variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; mean sea-level pressure; wind; atmospheric forcing; razina mora; promjena razine mora; Jadransko more; Sjeverno-atlantska oscilacija; srednji tlak na razini mora; vjetar; atmosfersko forsiranje; PRIRODNE ZNANOSTI. Geofizika; NATURAL SCIENCES. Geophysics; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://repozitorij.svkst.unist.hr/islandora/object/pmfst:1551; https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:166:396327; https://repozitorij.svkst.unist.hr/islandora/object/pmfst:1551/datastream/PDF

An analysis of the observed Adriatic mean sea-level time series has been carried out in order to determine the primary causes of the changes documented during the last 50 years. Significant positive sea-level trend, related to climate change, was detected for all stations using the least-squares method and t-test. Rodionov’s regime shift index algorithm was used to detect the following three pronounced regime shifts: the 1989 shift lasting 7 years with a decrease of 4.37 cm in sea level, the 1996 shift lasting 13 years with an increase of 2.07 cm in sea level, and the 2009 shift lasting at least until 2018 with an increase of 5.3 cm in sea level. A relationship between sea-level data and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean sea-level pressure, and wind components has been explored using both monthly and yearly data and establishing significant correlation, most pronounced for the November-December-January-February (NDJF) season. Lastly, the observed regime shifts were further analysed by reviewing synoptic conditions. It was once again confirmed that all the climate shifts were related to pronounced changes of the NAO. U ovom radu su analizirani izmjereni nizovi podataka usrednjenih razina mora kako bi se utvrdili glavni razlozi promjene razine mora zabilježene u posljednjih 50 godina. Značajni pozitivan trend, povezan s klimatskim promjenama, uočen je na svim postajama koristeći metodu najmanjih kvadrata i t-test. Koristeći Rodionov algoritam za promjenu režima pronađene su tri značajne promjene: pad razine mora 1989. od 4.37 cm koji je trajao 7 godina, porast razine mora 1996. od 2.07 cm koji je trajao 13 godina te porast razine mora 2009. od 5.3 cm koji je trajao do barem 2018. Istražena je veza srednje razine mora sa srednjim tlakom na razini mora, Sjeverno-atlantskom oscilacijom te vjetra koristeći mjesečne i godišnje podatke. Ustanovljena je značajna korelacija, ponajviše za period studeni-prosinac-siječanj-veljača. Pronađene promjene režima su analizirane provjerom sinoptičkih uvjeta. Još jednom je ...