Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch
Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid sh...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1108747 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo |
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ftunivsiena:oai:usiena-air.unisi.it:11365/1108747 2024-02-11T09:54:42+01:00 Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch Youngflesh, C. Jenouvrier, S. Li, Y. Ji, R. B. Ainley, D. G. Ballard, G. Barbraud, C. Delord, K. Dugger, K. M. Emmerson, L. M. Fraser, W. R. Hinke, J. T. Lyver, P. O. Olmastroni, S. Southwell, C. J. Trivelpiece, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Lynch, H. J. Youngflesh, C. Jenouvrier, S. Li, Y. Ji, R. B. Ainley, D. G. Ballard, G. Barbraud, C. Delord, K. Dugger, K. M. Emmerson, L. M. Fraser, W. R. Hinke, J. T. Lyver, P. O. Olmastroni, S. Southwell, C. J. Trivelpiece, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Lynch, H. J. 2017 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1108747 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28129431 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000398175200007 volume:98 issue:4 firstpage:940 lastpage:951 numberofpages:12 journal:ECOLOGY http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1108747 doi:10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85016245434 Anna Karenina Principle Antarctica asynchrony Bayesian hierarchical model climate change phenology Pygoscelis adeliae quantile regression info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2017 ftunivsiena https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo 2024-01-23T23:19:41Z Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adelie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adelie Penguin breeding phenology are - apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Climate change Phytoplankton Pygoscelis adeliae Sea ice Università degli Studi di Siena: USiena air Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Università degli Studi di Siena: USiena air |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsiena |
language |
English |
topic |
Anna Karenina Principle Antarctica asynchrony Bayesian hierarchical model climate change phenology Pygoscelis adeliae quantile regression |
spellingShingle |
Anna Karenina Principle Antarctica asynchrony Bayesian hierarchical model climate change phenology Pygoscelis adeliae quantile regression Youngflesh, C. Jenouvrier, S. Li, Y. Ji, R. B. Ainley, D. G. Ballard, G. Barbraud, C. Delord, K. Dugger, K. M. Emmerson, L. M. Fraser, W. R. Hinke, J. T. Lyver, P. O. Olmastroni, S. Southwell, C. J. Trivelpiece, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Lynch, H. J. Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
topic_facet |
Anna Karenina Principle Antarctica asynchrony Bayesian hierarchical model climate change phenology Pygoscelis adeliae quantile regression |
description |
Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adelie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adelie Penguin breeding phenology are - apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system. |
author2 |
Youngflesh, C. Jenouvrier, S. Li, Y. Ji, R. B. Ainley, D. G. Ballard, G. Barbraud, C. Delord, K. Dugger, K. M. Emmerson, L. M. Fraser, W. R. Hinke, J. T. Lyver, P. O. Olmastroni, S. Southwell, C. J. Trivelpiece, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Lynch, H. J. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Youngflesh, C. Jenouvrier, S. Li, Y. Ji, R. B. Ainley, D. G. Ballard, G. Barbraud, C. Delord, K. Dugger, K. M. Emmerson, L. M. Fraser, W. R. Hinke, J. T. Lyver, P. O. Olmastroni, S. Southwell, C. J. Trivelpiece, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Lynch, H. J. |
author_facet |
Youngflesh, C. Jenouvrier, S. Li, Y. Ji, R. B. Ainley, D. G. Ballard, G. Barbraud, C. Delord, K. Dugger, K. M. Emmerson, L. M. Fraser, W. R. Hinke, J. T. Lyver, P. O. Olmastroni, S. Southwell, C. J. Trivelpiece, S. G. Trivelpiece, W. Z. Lynch, H. J. |
author_sort |
Youngflesh, C. |
title |
Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
title_short |
Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
title_full |
Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
title_fullStr |
Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
title_full_unstemmed |
Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
title_sort |
circumpolar analysis of the adelie penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1108747 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Climate change Phytoplankton Pygoscelis adeliae Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Climate change Phytoplankton Pygoscelis adeliae Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28129431 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000398175200007 volume:98 issue:4 firstpage:940 lastpage:951 numberofpages:12 journal:ECOLOGY http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1108747 doi:10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85016245434 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo |
_version_ |
1790599602666209280 |