Circumpolar analysis of the Adelie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid sh...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Youngflesh, C., Jenouvrier, S., Li, Y., Ji, R. B., Ainley, D. G., Ballard, G., Barbraud, C., Delord, K., Dugger, K. M., Emmerson, L. M., Fraser, W. R., Hinke, J. T., Lyver, P. O., Olmastroni, S., Southwell, C. J., Trivelpiece, S. G., Trivelpiece, W. Z., Lynch, H. J.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2017
Subjects:
Anna Karenina Principle
Antarctica
asynchrony
Bayesian hierarchical model
climate change
phenology
Pygoscelis adeliae
quantile regression
Arctic
Antarctic
The Antarctic
Adelie penguin
Antarc*
Climate change
Phytoplankton
Sea ice
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1108747
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749/suppinfo
Description
Summary:Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adelie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adelie Penguin breeding phenology are - apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.

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