Multidecadal climate variability over northern France during the past 500 years and its relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Dieppois, Bastien, Lawler, Damian, Slonosky, Victoria, Massei, Nicolas, Bigot, Sylvain, Fournier, Matthieu, Durand, Alain
• Other Authors: Morphodynamique Continentale et Côtière (M2C), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Coventry University, Laboratoire d'étude des transferts en hydrologie et environnement (LTHE), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), Upper Normandy Regional Research Federation. Grant Number: FED 4116 SCALE
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: non‐stationarity; Northern France; multidecadal variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; atmospheric circulation; river flow changes; climate; precipitation; [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://normandie-univ.hal.science/hal-02110950; https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4660

(IF 3.76; Q1) International audience We examine secular changes and multidecadal climate variability on a seasonal scale in northern France over the last 500 years and examine the extent to which they are driven by large‐scale atmospheric variability. Multiscale trend analysis and segmentation procedures show statistically significant increases of winter and spring precipitation amounts in Paris since the end of the 19th century. This changes the seasonal precipitation distribution from one with a pronounced summer peak at the end of the Little Ice Age to an almost uniform distribution in the 20th century. This switch is linked to an early warming trend in winter temperature. Changes in spring precipitation are also correlated with winter precipitation for time scales greater than 50 years, which suggests a seasonal persistence. Hydrological modelling results show similar rising trends in river flow for the Seine at Paris. However, such secular trends in the seasonal climatic conditions over northern France are substantially modulated by irregular multidecadal (50–80 years) fluctuations. Furthermore, since the end of the 19th century, we find an increasing variance in multidecadal hydroclimatic winter and spring, and this coincides with an increase in the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability, suggesting a significant influence of large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. However, multidecadal NAO variability has decreased in summer. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, we detect multidecadal North Atlantic sea‐level pressure anomalies, which are significantly linked to the NAO during the Modern period. In particular, a south‐eastward (south‐westward) shift of the Icelandic Low (Azores High) drives substantial multidecadal changes in spring. Wetter springs are likely to be driven by potential changes in moisture advection from the Atlantic, in response to northward shifts of North Atlantic storm tracks over European regions, linked to periods of positive NAO. Similar, but ...