Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries
International audience Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipita...
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ftunivsavoie:oai:HAL:hal-00331154v1 2024-04-28T08:21:30+00:00 Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries Fettweis, X. Hanna, E. Gallée, H. Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. Département de Géographie Department of Geography Department of geography Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Departement Geografie 2008-04-09 https://hal.science/hal-00331154 https://hal.science/hal-00331154/document https://hal.science/hal-00331154/file/tcd-2-225-2008.pdf en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus hal-00331154 https://hal.science/hal-00331154 https://hal.science/hal-00331154/document https://hal.science/hal-00331154/file/tcd-2-225-2008.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0432 EISSN: 1994-0440 The Cryosphere Discussions https://hal.science/hal-00331154 The Cryosphere Discussions, 2008, 2 (2), pp.225-254 [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftunivsavoie 2024-04-11T00:40:51Z International audience Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions Université Savoie Mont Blanc: HAL |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université Savoie Mont Blanc: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsavoie |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Fettweis, X. Hanna, E. Gallée, H. Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
topic_facet |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty. |
author2 |
Département de Géographie Department of Geography Department of geography Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Departement Geografie |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fettweis, X. Hanna, E. Gallée, H. Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. |
author_facet |
Fettweis, X. Hanna, E. Gallée, H. Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. |
author_sort |
Fettweis, X. |
title |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
title_short |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
title_full |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
title_fullStr |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
title_sort |
estimation of the greenland ice sheet surface mass balance during 20th and 21st centuries |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00331154 https://hal.science/hal-00331154/document https://hal.science/hal-00331154/file/tcd-2-225-2008.pdf |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0432 EISSN: 1994-0440 The Cryosphere Discussions https://hal.science/hal-00331154 The Cryosphere Discussions, 2008, 2 (2), pp.225-254 |
op_relation |
hal-00331154 https://hal.science/hal-00331154 https://hal.science/hal-00331154/document https://hal.science/hal-00331154/file/tcd-2-225-2008.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1797583812191846400 |